<![CDATA[Latest Research]]> https://acentric.co.za/blog/ EN Fri, 16 Dec 2022 14:07:00 +0000 Incomedia WebSite X5 Pro <![CDATA[Simulating SA consumer reaction to ‘cow-free’ milk to find the right price & features]]> imblog
Dairy farmers, biotech startups and beverage brands may be affected by the impending entry of ‘cow-free’ milk technologies onto the SA market.

Ballpark forecasts of consumer response under different future market scenarios may be helpful in providing an indication of how demand for traditional cow milk may change.

A conjoint analysis survey was conducted amongst South African grocery shoppers in February 2022 to assess consumer reaction to two new ‘cow-free’ milk technologies. Conjoint analysis is a methodology that provides ‘ballpark’ forecasts based on specific feature and pricing configurations.

The first technology uses cells in a bioreactor to produce milk. These are the same cells cows use to make milk (derived from stem cells). The second technology uses genetically modified flora (e.g. fungus) to produce milk.

In this article I will show the results of simulations for two sets of scenarios – the first set focused on the viability of launching a new biotech producer (without a dairy herd) and the second set focused on incumbent adoption of cow-free technology, either as an outright replacement for cow milk or as a product line extension.

This research takes no position on whether or not this is desirable or healthy. The aim is to provide ballpark forecasts and to demonstrate the usefulness of conjoint analysis in anticipating consumer reaction.

Conjoint analysis survey

Conjoint analysis is a survey-based technique that allows you to quantify how important product features and pricing are to a consumer, without asking directly. Simulators can then be built to estimate consumer response under different scenarios.

There are many forms of conjoint analysis. In this case metric conjoint analysis was used, as it has numerous advantages over choice-based conjoint (discrete choice models). A frequent objection - not being able to estimate a ‘none’ option - has been overcome through a recent methodological improvement introduced by the author.

The first step involves breaking products down into their component parts – called attributes which are further broken down into mutually exclusive levels.

It was decided to focus on the UHT milk market – in particular the most widely available 1 litre SKU. Five different attributes were the focus of the study: brand, price, type, cap and pack. A decision was made to restrict the brand levels to the leading non-store brands. A mockup of a hypothetical new brand ‘Kinder Green’ was also included to illustrate how the potential of a new biotech entrant could be assessed using conjoint analysis.

Table 1 Attribute levels and map

    
An algorithm was then used to construct artificial product profiles. The algorithm is designed to collect as much information about consumer reaction with the minimum number of product profiles. In this study it was only necessary to test a subset of 17 of the possible alternatives using a main-effects assumption.
 
The profiles were shown along with images of each brand’s milk packaging (1L SKU). A packaging mockup was created for Kinder Green.

Figure 1 Example of one of the profiles shown in the survey

After asking various awareness and behavioural questions, participants were exposed to a textual description of the new ‘cow-free milk’ concept (see appendix A) and their reaction recorded. Participants were then shown the product profiles – each participant seeing them in a different order to mitigate order effects. The orders were generated randomly. Measurements are then taken of participants overall reaction to each profile. Conjoint analysis does not require survey participants to indicate the importance or impact of individual attributes and levels; instead estimates of the impact (part-worths) are derived statistically.

The conjoint analysis model

Once the survey completed, a ‘part-worth’ was estimated for each attribute level (for each survey participant). This indicates the average impact the level had on purchase intention ratings across the profiles shown to the survey participant. The total utility of a specific product profile in the simulator is simply the sum of these part-worths and intercept.

A decision rule was then used to translate the utilities for all of the competitors into share estimates at the aggregate level. This model also incorporated external effects (usually ignored in conjoint analysis studies) in the form of perceived product availability in store. This was accounted for at the individual level to improve accuracy.

Before deciding on the final approach, a variety of alternatives were tested, including: different decision rules, approaches to negating the IIA assumption (by accounting for differential substitutability), rescaling to emulate choices made in choice-holdouts as well as comparisons to measured market share. It was decided not to force alignment with measured market share using calibration factors, as is common practice, since the model was near enough to measured share and it is preferable to explicitly incorporate external effects.

It should be noted that market share estimates should be treated as ‘ballpark’ estimates. While the aim was to align with measured share in sample, this does not necessarily align with actual volume markets share as no attempt was made to apply sample weights to correct for demographic representation (see appendix B) nor were calibrations conducted to force alignment with scanner data or diary panel data.

Figure 2 Schematic of the conjoint analysis model implemented
 
 

Results

Preference for ‘cow’ versus ‘cow-free’ milk

The chart below shows the percentage of survey participants preferring each type of milk. This is derived from each participants calculated part-worth for each technology. Cow milk has a narrow majority of 52.9%  – all else held equal. However, as the scenarios below show, this can be compensated for by price.

Figure 3 Percentage of participants part-worth is largest for

Price insights

An example of the types of price analysis that can be done.

The simulator suggests that different brands and milk technologies yield different share and revenue responses to price increases. Take Kinder Green (Cow-Free Milk) for instance. While share diminishes, revenue does not over most of the price range tested – even increasing slightly in the middle of the range. Contrast that with Dewfresh, which exhibits a decline in both share and revenue as price increases. Note: the below is fixed in the baseline scenario, while price is allowed to vary.  

Figure 4 Dewfresh – price vs share and revenue*

 
Figure 5 Kinder Green (cow-free) price vs share and revenue*

 
·          Per 1,000 refers to per 1,000 buyers of the UHT milk category
 
·          Revenue indicator = share proportion x 1,000 x average litres purchased per annum per buyer x price per litre
 

New entrant scenario simulations

The key question guiding the selection of the new entrant scenarios was: “Would it be possible for a biotech entrant without any existing dairy herd to enter the market and achieve a market share that’s likely to be sufficiently profitable?” For this exercise I have defined a sufficiently profitable market share for this industry as 10%.

The new entrant, Kinder Green, is shown in the first column in most of the scenarios.

As a cautionary note, the scenarios assume that cow-free milk delivers on its promise and that the actual product doesn’t fail to live up to expectations. See the appendix A to see how cow-free milk was defined.

Baseline scenario

The baseline scenario mirrors the actual market in early 2022, and acts as a reference point for the exploration of the alternative scenarios to follow. In this scenarios Kinder Green is switched off as it does not exist yet on the market.

Figure 6 Baseline
 

Scenario 1: new cow-free brand (Kinder Green) enters at a 10% price premium

In this scenario we answer the question, will the new brand be able to enter the market at a 10% price premium to Clover, with market support at similar levels to the weakest brand in the simulator (Dewfresh) and still be able to achieve its market share goal?  
 
As can be seen below, the projected market share is far below the 10% share goal.

Figure 7 Scenario 1
 

Scenario 2: enter at 10% premium, with bioplastic cap and recyclable packaging

Would switching to a bioplastic lid and recyclable packaging bring the share to at least 10%? As can be seen, while there is a small increase in share, this is still far off the mark.

Figure 8 Scenario 2            

It’s worth noting that recyclable packaging is more important to consumers than bioplastic caps. As can be seen below, whether the cap is bioplastic or plastic seems of little relevance to consumers. This attribute was included in the study as at least one incumbent brand offers bioplastic caps and the result may be of relevance to other brands considering the introduction of this feature.

Figure 9 Cap part-worths

Scenario 3: discount to reach target share – with bioplastic cap and recyclable packaging

In addition to the bioplastic cap and recyclable packaging, would offering a discount help? Various discounts were applied until finally reaching the lowest tested level of 9.99. Even so, the projected share of 8.97% was short of the target of 10%.

Figure 10 Scenario 3
 

Scenario 4: discount to needed, marketing support to Clover level - with bioplastic cap and recyclable packaging

In the 4th scenario, marketing support levels are increased to match those of market leader, Clover, while the bioplastic cap and recyclable packaging is maintained. As the simulation shows, no discount is needed, in fact price can be set at a premium relative to Clover (17.65) to exceed the 10% target.

Figure 11 Scenario 4



Incumbent scenario simulations – replacement or line extension

Scenario 5: No new entrant. Incumbent brand Dewfresh replaces cow with cow-free milk.

What about a situation where there is no new entrant, but an existing brand switches to cow-free milk?

In the baseline scenario Dewfresh is priced at 14.74 and has a ballpark market share of 6.22%. After switching to ‘cow-free (from cells)’, its share is projected to drop in the simulation to 5.34%.
 
To recover lost share, the price only needs to decrease by 0.24 to 14.5 to push share back to just over parity (6.22%) to 6.5%. This suggests that cost of sales would need to diminish by at least 0.24 to make cow-free (from cells) a viable proposition for this brand.
 
Figure 12 Scenario 5

Scenario 6: No new entrant. Incumbent brand (Dewfresh) adds cow-free milk to product line

In this scenario, incumbent brand (Dewfresh) keeps cow milk and adds cow-free as an additional option, at the same price (see the first column). Summing the simulator projections below, the combined share equals 8.67%, exceeding Dewfresh’s original simulated share of 6.22%. This is likely due to cow-free milk appealing to a different segment of consumers, some of whom may previously have rejected Dewfresh.

Figure 13 Scenario 6

In conclusion

Discussion of the business implications and business models that will be viable in future are beyond the scope of this article. But hopefully this will stimulate some thought and interest in planning for the entrance of a potentially disruptive technology onto the SA milk market.

In part two, brand equity, pricing and further scenarios will be explored.

Ready to launch a conjoint analysis survey of your own? Acentric is offering the new conjoint analysis survey module at a promotional price. Try it now before the offer expires!

Appendix A: cow-free milk concept

‘Cow-free’ milk is now possible. Various technologies have either been
 
developed or are being developed to make milk that is identical to cow
 
milk, except no cows are involved in producing the milk. It tastes the

same as cow milk.
 
Advantages include kindness to animals, environmental advantages
 
(far less water and land use), possible health advantages and
 
potentially lower production costs.
 
How it’s made – the two alternative technologies:
 
Cow-free milk (flora-based): milk produced by combining milk
 
protein from genetically modified flora (e.g. fungus such as
 
mushrooms or yeast which include cow DNA to produce milk protein)
 
with other ingredients. It doesn't contain lactose, hormones, or
 
cholesterol. Cow-free milk (cell-based): is milk produced by cells in a
 
bioreactor. These are the same cells cows use to make milk, so this is
 
actual milk not just a milk protein. These cells are grown from stem
 
cells.

Appendix B: technical note – sample representation

No attempt was made to apply sample weights to correct for demographic representation. Owing to the exploratory nature of this research, only a small sample was used, which would have meant that sample weights would have inflated standard errors to unacceptable levels.

Footnote:

The ‘cow-free (from flora)’ option was not evaluated in the scenarios included in this article, suffice it to say that the flora option produces only slightly more negative reactions, and so it was not considered worthwhile running separate scenarios.
 
 
 
 
]]> Fri, 16 Dec 2022 14:07:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?simulating-sa-consumer-reaction-to-cow-free-milk-in-south-africa- https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000002F <![CDATA[Screen new product concepts to reduce launch risk]]> imblog
Are you trying to decide between alternative product concepts or business ideas? Avoid the mistake of choosing a concept based on your own opinion or even the opinions of colleagues and family; because in all likelihood you’ll get the wrong feedback. Not only are they unlikely to be representative of the broader market, they also have a relationship with you which influences feedback, and this might be entirely unconscious. It is far better to get feedback from a larger group of consumers who have no connection to you or your business.

Getting a concept wrong can result in lost R&D investments and marketing costs.

Acentric provides an easy, low cost solution in the form of the Concept Screener Survey module. Up to seven alternatives (including your existing item for comparison) can be included in the survey.

The survey is templated and ready to go. Your survey is sent to survey participants who then rate your alternatives. The order of alternatives is automatically changed for each participant to cancel out the effect of order bias.
 
The report you’ll receive ranks the concepts, from best to worst, on purchase intent. Each alternative is compared to the existing alternative to determine if it is an improvement or worse than the existing alternative. Analysis and report production is mostly automated to speed-up turnaround.

In addition, survey participants provide three key diagnostic ratings: uniqueness, liking and brand fit. The diagnostic scores for each new alternative are compared to the existing alternative on each diagnostic.

To launch, simply click on modules, find the Concept Screener Module, click on details to read more, then click on create now to provide a few details – including the alternatives you want tested – in the form of image files (ensuring the first one is the existing or benchmark design).
 
]]> Fri, 05 Aug 2022 11:38:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?screen-multiple-new-product-concepts-to-reduce-launch-risk https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000002A <![CDATA[Avoid product package design flops - screen out the worst designs]]> imblog
Are you a package designer, or do you have a product package design that requires a refresh, or are you commissioning a new package design? If yes, then you will find at some point that you need to decide between alternative package designs. Avoid the mistake most managers make, don’t choose it based on your own opinion or even the opinions of colleagues and family; because in all likelihood you’ll get the wrong feedback. Not only are they unlikely to be representative of the broader market, they also have a relationship with you which influences feedback, and this might be entirely unconscious. It is far better to get feedback from a larger group of consumers who have no connection to you or your business.
 
Getting a package design wrong can be costly, both in terms of design costs and in terms of brand positioning and sales.
 
Acentric provides an easy, low cost solution in the form of the Package Screener Survey module. Up to seven alternatives (including your existing item for comparison) can be included in the survey.

The survey is templated and ready to go. Your survey is sent to survey participants who then rate your package alternatives. Survey participants are recruited from a survey panel within the country you specify. They are shown in random order to eliminate order bias.
 
The report you’ll receive ranks the packages, from best to worst, on purchase intent. Analysis and report production is mostly automated to speed-up turnaround.

In addition, survey participants provide three key diagnostic ratings: uniqueness, liking and brand fit.
 
Uniqueness is important as it relates to standout on shelf, which is especially important if the brand does not advertise and realize solely on shelf presence to generate awareness.

Liking is important as consumers are more likely to buy a product in appealing packaging.
 
Brand fit is important as it influences recognition on shelf. The disastrous redesign of Tropicana’s packaging is a notorious example of what can go wrong if brand fit is ignored. The design was so different consumers didn’t recognise the product on shelf and sales plummeted 20%.

The diagnostic scores for each new alternative are compared to the existing alternative on each diagnostic.
 
Testing your own package designs is easy. Simply click on modules, find the logo screener survey module, click on details to read more, then click on create now to provide a few details, select the country you want your survey participants to reside in and attach your alternative menu items as image files (ensuring the first one is the existing or benchmark design).
]]> Thu, 04 Aug 2022 12:35:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?find-the-package-designs-that-maximize-sales https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000029 <![CDATA[Avoid logo design failure – find the best logo colors, fonts & overall design]]> imblog
Do you have a logo design that requires a refresh, or are you commissioning a new logo design? If yes, then you will find at some point that you need to decide between alternative logo designs. Avoid the mistake most people make, don’t choose it based on your own opinion or even the opinions of colleagues and family; because in all likelihood you’ll get the wrong feedback. Not only are they probably not representative of the broader market, they also have a relationship with you which influences feedback, and this might be entirely unconscious. It is far better to get feedback from a larger group of consumers who have no connection to you or your business.
 
Getting a logo or a brand name wrong can be costly, both in terms of design costs and in terms of reputation; not to mention customer confusion over constant changes.
 
Acentric provides an easy, low cost solution in the form of the Logo Screener Survey module. Up to seven alternatives (including your existing item for comparison) can be included in the survey.
 
The survey is templated and ready to go. Your survey is sent to survey participants who then rate your logo alternatives. Survey participants are recruited from a survey panel within the country you specify. They are shown in random order to eliminate order bias.
 
The report you’ll receive ranks the logos, from best to worst, allowing you to screen out the worst designs. Analysis and report production is mostly automated to speed-up turnaround.
 
While logos are only one aspect of marketing materials, they do have an impact on the rest of the colour schemes used, and the font and design itself has an impact, sometimes unconscious on purchase behaviour. As a result, the report includes a comparison of purchase intention for each new alternative versus the existing alternative, making it easy to see whether the new item is likely to improve purchase interest or worsen purchase interest.

For example, a survey of alternative logo designs was conducted for the panel, as it was felt that the original logo (Design 1 in the image below) may have the wrong colouring. The green might be associated with autumn and dying plants, rather than healthy plants. As a result 6 alternatives designed and included with the existing design.



The survey result showed that indeed the existing logo was one of the poorest performers, nearly ranking last. While alternative 6 was ranked in first place, alternative 3 was a very close second place - lifting the average rating by 1 point (see below) - versus the existing logo. It was felt that while alternative 6, with the cartoon palm tree, was ranked slightly higher, it might be too different from the existing design (which could affect recognition) and the novelty of the cartoon design might wear off quickly; so ultimately option 3 was preferred, as it scored nearly on par.



In addition, survey participants provide three key diagnostic ratings: uniqueness, liking and brand fit. The scores for each new alternative are compared to the existing menu item on each diagnostic. In our example above, design 3 scored better on uniqueness and brand fit than the existing design.

So what steps are involved if you want to do this yourself? Setup is easy. Simply click on modules, find the logo screener survey module, click on details to read more, then click on create now to provide a few details, select the country you want your survey participants to reside in and attach your alternative menu items as image files (ensuring the first one is the existing or benchmark design). This is easily done in a tool such as PowerPoint, where you can save each items text and price on a separate slide and then save all as images (jpg format) in one batch. If you need help, please reach out.
 

So what are you waiting for, visit the modules page and improve your logo design today!
 
 
 
 
]]> Fri, 29 Jul 2022 08:46:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?dont-rely-on-guesses-find-the-best-logo-design https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000028 <![CDATA[Screen out menu item flops before revising your restaurant menu]]> imblog
Do you have a restaurant-menu item that is not selling as well as it should? If yes, then you need to replace it with an alternative menu item. However, this can be tricky. The traditional trial and error approach of guessing and printing new menus is costly, both in terms of menu printing costs and in terms of food costs; not to mention customer annoyance over constant changes.

Acentric provides an easy, low cost solution in the form of the Restaurant Screener Survey module. Up to seven alternative ideas (including your existing item for comparison) can be included on the survey.

The survey is templated and ready to go. Your survey is sent to survey participants who then rate your menu items. Survey participants are recruited from a survey panel within the country you specify. They are shown in random order to eliminate order bias. with automated analysis and report production on completion. The report will be emailed to you within 72 hours.
 
The report includes a comparison of purchase intention for each alternative versus the existing menu item, making it easy to see whether the new item is likely to improve purchase interest or worsen purchase interest.

In addition survey participants provide three key diagnostic ratings: value for money, liking and brand fit. The scores for each new alternative are compared to the existing menu item on each diagnostic. You can see an example report on the details page mentioned below.
 
Setup is easy. Simply click on modules, find the restaurant screener survey module, click on details to read more, then click on create now to provide a few details, select the country you want survey participants to reside in and attach your alternative menu items as image files. This is easily done in a tool such as PowerPoint, where you can save each items text and price on a separate slide and then save all as images (jpg format) in one batch. If you need help, please reach out.



You could also conceivably test entire menu sub-sections – such as the continental breakfast – as long as you minimize information overload, so that it can be read within 10 seconds or so. The maximum image size is 950 pixels wide by 950 pixels high. It is suggested that you do not go below 300 pixels on any dimension.

If you want to craft attractive menu sub-sections, then you can make use of NCH’s free software. However this exports them as PDFs, so you would need to take screenshots using a tool like “snipping tool” and save them as Jpegs (check that the .jpg file extension is shown after saving).

So what are you waiting for, visit Acentric's survey modules page and improve your menu today!
]]> Thu, 14 Jul 2022 15:07:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?take-the-pain-out-of-choosing-a-new-menu-item-for-your-restaurant https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000024 <![CDATA[Acentric Online Retail Brand Report - South Africa - 2020 released]]> imblog
Takealot has been ranked first as the online retail brand with the largest brand equity in South Africa, followed by followed by Amazon, Makro, Game and Edgars. Takealot also leads in terms of revenue, estimated at R7.6 billion followed by Game in second place. This is according to a new study titled “Online Retail Brands Report – South Africa – 2020”, available from the Acentric report store. The report is based on a survey of online shoppers, conducted by Acentric Marketing Research, covering the 12 month period to February 2020. The results were weighted to ensure demographic representation. In total 75 brands operating in the South African market were included in the survey.
The Acentric Brand Equity (ABM) index is a customer-based brand equity index. The ABM incorporates brand awareness, brand associations on 14 dimensions, and estimates of each dimensions importance as a store brand preference driver. “Takealot has high brand awareness, and is strongly positioned on competitive delivery costs and fast delivery.” says Craig Kolb, author of the report.

While Dion Wired is no longer operational, they were still in operation during the period covered by the survey and performed well on the ‘good service’ dimension. “Dion was ranked first; followed by Foschini and ActiveCellular. Exclusive was ranked last and is therefore not strongly positioned on this dimension.” says Kolb.

In terms of brand penetration, generalists and fashion retailers lead the way. Takealot had the largest percentage of online shoppers purchasing at least once over the period; followed by Game, Amazon, Ackermans and Edgars.

In total 30 product categories were measured in the survey; with fashion, cellular, cosmetics, computing and watches topping the list in terms of penetration over the period.

In terms of how stores communicate with customers the survey revealed that old isn’t necessarily bad, with email leading in terms of communication channel preferences. “Email still leads as the most preferred channel, ahead of WhatsApp. Possible explanations include broader accessibility across devices, lower immediate interaction expectations, better suitability for detailed technical issues and integration with ticketing systems that keep track of separate issues in a more effective way than applications like WhatsApp or telephonic communication.” says Kolb.



The full report is now available for free. Download by clicking here.





]]> Tue, 27 Oct 2020 16:31:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?acentric-online-retail-brand-s-report-2020-released https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000022 <![CDATA[Coronavirus Forecasts by Country – 365 Days]]> imblog Release date: May 2020

Introduction

Coronavirus (Covid-19) forecast slide decks are provided for the first wave below. The forecast ignores the lockdowns, the reasoning being that the lockdowns would simply move cases and fatalities forward and that these numbers would eventually catch up to the forecast over a long forecast range of 365 days. Included below are detailed assumption notes and a forecast per country 365 days ahead (starting with the day of the first case).

Why forecast using pre-lockdown data as input?

Allows for a more accurate estimate of the eventual number of official cases, actual infections and fatalities; since the data is not distorted by the impact of an artificial lockdown (which in turn distorts estimates of model parameters). Only data available pre-lockdown is used to fit the model.

Forecast accuracy

The forecast model provided a good approximation to reality for South Africa. The 365 day forecast released on the 18th of May 2020 (for SA) forecast fatalities between 12,074 and 48,287 by the end of the 365 day window (counting from the first fatality in March 2020 and ending 6 March 2021).  Actual fatalities as of 6 March 2021, equalled 50,566, just slightly higher than the upper forecast boundary. As expected, the forecast peak is far to early, as the model ignores artificial delay caused by lockdowns. However timing the peak was considered less important than estimating the eventual total number of fatalities over the forecast range.


Forecast slide decks by country

The primary impact, under the no lockdown scenario, is that the speed at which infections spread is greater, and so the peak is reached more quickly.

The forecasts below give an indication of what might have happened if voluntary social distancing had been the only non-medical intervention. The models are estimated based on actual data prior to a lockdown. The ‘official’ daily new case data was pre-processed. To improve the accuracy of the forecasts the official daily new case data was adjusted to estimate the actual number of new infections each day.  This was further adjusted to account for the number who are currently infectious (contagious) using a moving window. The two days prior to the lockdown were excluded from the data used to fit models (in each country) since some may have changed behaviour in anticipation of a lockdown.







Acknowledgements

Original code from Learning Machines. Acentric adapted the original code to improve accuracy. The original code input 'cumulative cases' which is not suitable for a SIR model. A new module was created to estimate daily new 'infectious' (as opposed to 'infections' or 'cases' which are entirely different metrics) to provide the correct input and to automate data gathering and reporting.

]]> Sat, 30 May 2020 16:20:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?coronavirus-forecasts-by-country---365-days https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000021 <![CDATA[Seven reasons to choose CA over CBC conjoint analysis]]> imblog  
By Craig Kolb, Acentric Marketing Research (Pty) LTD, 21 June 2019

Conjoint analysis can be divided into two broad classes. The first is often simply referred to as Conjoint Analysis (CA) as it is the traditional form (1). The second is Choice Based Conjoint (CBC); sometimes referred to as Discrete Choice Modelling (DCM).
If any random end-user of conjoint analysis were asked what the difference was between CA and CBC, they would most likely point out differences in how the data is collected. CA uses one of either rating (metric), ranking or pairwise forms of data collection (in this article I’m usually referring to the ratings form) while CBC uses choice sets. However they also differ in many other ways at each of the major stages of a conjoint analysis procedure, namely: experimental design construction, the types of statistical models used and the way in which simulators are constructed.

CA conjoint analysis is the oldest form of conjoint analysis; developed into a commercially useful form by Professor Paul E. Green in the 1970s. Over the years it has gone through various improvements within the academic literature to keep it relevant.

Both CA and CBC have their own strengths and weaknesses, but perhaps because CBC came later, commentators (particularly vendors like Sawtooth) focused on selling the ‘new kid on the block’. As a result, less seems to have been written about the advantages of CA conjoint analysis.

So in this article I hope to address that imbalance by outlining the advantages of CA; some of them from the literature and some of them from own experience.

The advent of smartphones
CA is better suited to small screens. CBC conjoint is burdened with the requirement that at least two alternatives (usually more) are shown next to each other on a screen. Fitting an entire 'choice set' on screen – in a legible way - is often difficult. As many respondents now choose to complete surveys on smartphones, rather than desktops or laptops, this isn’t a trivial concern. While respondents could conceivably scroll horizontally or pivot to view all of the options, this is inconvenient and unreliable, and risks respondents missing options.  Ratings-based CA, with its 'one at a time' approach doesn't have this problem (although it can also be displayed in shelf-like grids if needed). Each profile usually fits comfortably on screen, and even if scrolling is required, it is normally vertically; a process necessary to find the rating scale and button to 'continue' at the bottom, making it unlikely they will miss any aspect of the profile.

Choice sets are not always more realistic than monadic exposure
It's often been claimed that CBC is somehow more 'realistic'. While the choice sets of CBC might seem ideal in CPG / FMCG applications, there are numerous industries where you are unlikely to have competitors simultaneously arrayed in front of you at the moment of choice. Many real world choice situations are more realistically measured in a monadic way. Decision making in these industries relies more heavily on memory. Examples include online stores, universities, cars, banks, insurance, software and housing.

The original reason CBC began to supplant CA is not as relevant anymore
One of the original contentions of the developers of CBC conjoint analysis was that asking for choices provided ‘ratio scaled’ data – as opposed to CA’s ratings, which are interval scaled. The typical validation benchmark is the 'choice hold-out' and models using CBC do well against this type of benchmark. However, what this argument ignores is that CA utilizes decision rules, such as Bradley-Terry Luce (BTL) to rescale interval to ratio.

Green improved on BTL using a tuning exponent - often referred to as the Alpha rule. Essentially holdout choice tasks are used to estimate a rescaling parameter that then allows CA conjoint to more closely emulate choice probabilities.

Newer work by Guyon & Petiot (2011) advances this further with a methodology that automatically rescales and also allows for the relaxation of the IIA assumption made by the BTL rule (the IIA issue is also faced by MNL models used in traditional CBC). Unfortunately one of the more commonly used CA software packages, IBM SPSS Conjoint doesn't yet offer Guyon & Petiot's approach or Green's approach.

Comparable performance
While software developers may give the impression that CBC is more accurate, academic research is far less clear; both in terms of parameter estimates and in terms of predictive validity.

In terms of parameters, Karniouchina et al. (2008) found only slight differences between parameter estimates – implying similar estimates of attribute importance. Indeed Karniouchina et al. (2008) concluded “This study, along with the other articles in this research stream, strongly suggests that in traditional conjoint tasks, the parameter estimates produced by RB and CB conjoint models are likely to be quite similar”. Similarly, Furlan & Corradetti (2005) reported that CA and CBC produced very similar attribute importance estimates in a camcorder application.

In terms of predictive validity, a study by Elrod et. al (1992) of rental apartments demonstrated that CA and CBC conjoint produced similar results, “both approaches predict holdout shares well…”.

Karniouchina et al. (2008) in a study of laptops found that ‘hit rates’ (percentage of times the hold-out choice matches predicted choice) at the individual level were better for a more complex form of CBC called hierarchical bayes (HB CBC); but no significant difference was found with segment level hit rates or aggregate level hit rates. In terms of predicted share of choice “no significant differences between the individual or segment-level RB [i.e. CA conjoint] and CB [i.e. CBC conjoint] models ” were found, while there was a significant difference at the aggregate level. A peculiarity of this study should be pointed out, in that HB was used for the individual level parameter estimates for CA.
Furlan & Corradetti (2005) reported similar predictive hit rates in the aforementioned camcorder study for CA and CBC (80% vs 84%); even though the choice holdouts came from the CBC experimental design, which likely gave the CBC model an unfair advantage (this is unusual since holdouts by definition should not come from any of the choice sets used in estimating the model).

While hardly an exhaustive examination of academic studies on this topic, these few studies should make it clear that there is nothing near a consensus on CBC being superior in predicting hold outs (whether preference share at the aggregate level or hit rates at the individual). If the aim of your study is to predict market share, rather than preference share, then any differences in performance are even less relevant. When you consider that conjoint analysis is an incomplete model, in the sense that it ignores the promotional and accessibility aspects of the marketing mix and has modest external validity (without calibrating for these missing variables) it is doubtful any slight differences between CA and CBC in terms of hold-out predictions matters much in practice.

CA cognitive load is lower than CBC
CA requires less effort on the respondent’s part, since respondents only need to evaluate one profile at a time. In contrast, CBC conjoint requires respondents to examine multiple profiles in each choice set before making a decision. Given how large these can become – I have seen some CBC choice sets run as large as eight profiles abreast – there is no doubt a large cognitive load on respondents, for very little in exchange in terms of information provided back (i.e. a single choice).

In total there are more profiles for a given number of attributes and levels in CBC conjoint analysis. So assuming CBC respondents pay as much attention to each profile, there load is far greater for the entire exercise. Of course, some simply don’t pay attention to all the profiles and provide poorer quality data in return.

Figure 1: CBC vs CA layout
 
CA conjoint doesn’t require large samples in order to estimate parameters
CA conjoint can be estimated for a single individual if necessary. CBC requires a much larger sample in order to estimate parameters, since less information is collected from respondents.

As a result CBC, and its various flavours, do not estimate individual level parameters directly. The simplest form of CBC only provides one set of parameters for the entire sample, since there is insufficient information collected from respondents to estimate at the individual level.
That said, an enormous amount of effort has been put into trying to estimate individual-level parameters, or at least come close to it. These methods must ‘borrow’ information from the aggregate to estimate individual parameters and a numbers of assumptions must be made in doing this (for instance random parameters logit requires assumptions about distribution functions).

CBC is often complex
CBC conjoint (also referred to as discrete choice modelling) is a blanket term that conceals a bewildering array of options, and things can get complicated very quickly. Not only are there numerous models (such as Hierarchical Bayes and Latent Class) and software packages to choose from, there are numerous decisions you must make prior to launch and after the study completes. These include decisions regarding the sample design, survey mode, experimental design, parameter estimation, partial profiles, hybridization and so on. Each of these can take considerable design time, and I haven’t even gotten to issues regarding the simulator setup, which is an entire topic on its own.
So CBC can become enormously involved for the practitioner. Worse, research users are going to have a harder time grasping the end result. Let’s take the parameters as an example. CA part-worths are easy to explain as simple deviations from the average rating. In contrast, the parameters of CBC are expressed in terms of log odds, which even when exponentiated and expressed as odds ratios is still confusing.

In summary, the uncertain gains in internal validity are not worth the additional cost and complexity. Even in situations where consumers will face choice arrays – such as the supermarket shelf – I’m not sure an adequate case can be made to justify CBC conjoint as the default choice.

Notes
1. In previous versions of this article I used the term CVA as it had become a byword for traditional conjoint analysis. Technically though, CVA is the name of a software package that used to be produced by Sawtooth. So I have changed this to CA or traditional conjoint analysis, as these are commonly used terms in academic writing.
2. A newer version of this article can be found here with additional references regarding the performance of metric conjoint analysis.

References
Elrod, T., Louviere, J. J., & Davey, K. S. (1992). An Empirical Comparison of Ratings-Based and Choice-Based Conjoint Models. Journal of Marketing Research, 29(3), 368. doi:10.2307/3172746

Karniouchina, Ekaterina & Moore, William & Rhee, Bo & Verma, Rohit. (2009). Issues in the Use of Ratings-Based Versus Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis in Operations Management Research. European Journal of Operational Research. 197. 340-348. 10.1016/j.ejor.2008.05.029.

Baier, Daniel & Pełka, Marcin & Rybicka, Aneta & Schreiber, Stefanie. (2015). Ratings-/Rankings-Based Versus Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis for Predicting Choices. 10.1007/978-3-662-44983-7_18.

About the author
Craig Kolb is a quantitative marketing-research specialist. Craig has over 17 years experience conducting marketing research studies, with a special emphasis on survey-based measures and analytics. Craig believes surveys are an important, albeit often misused way of understanding human beings, and a valuable sanity check on digital metrics which often fail to deliver in terms of accuracy and insight.
Craig has written numerous papers over the years and has received extensive coverage in the media for his marketing research work.
Craig has a B.Soc.Sci. (Hons) degree and an Ordinary Certificate in Statistics from the RSS.
Related content
  • Predicting SA consumer reaction to 'Cow-Free Milk'
  • Run your own conjoint analysis study

 
]]> Fri, 21 Jun 2019 11:19:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?seven-reasons-to-choose-ca-over-cbc-conjoint-analysis https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000030 <![CDATA[Sodium Hypochlorite Market Report – South Africa 2018 - released]]> imblog A new report on the Sodium Hypochlorite market has been released by Acentric Marketing Research. The report provides a brief overview of the Global and South African markets, with data for 2016 and overall-market forecasts for the period 2017 to 2021.


The following data is provided:

1.) Estimate of the global market size for Sodium Hypochlorite in 2016 in terms of value.

2.) Estimate of the global market size for Sodium Hypochlorite in 2016 in terms of volume.

3.) Estimate of the South African market size for Sodium Hypochlorite in 2016 in terms of value.

4.) Estimate of the South African market size for Sodium Hypochlorite in 2016 in terms of volume.

5.) Forecast of the overall Global market size from 2017 to 2021.

6.) Forecast of the overall South Africa market size from 2017 to 2021.

7.) Bullet point PESTLE analysis of South African market.

8.) Estimate of the market share of the top two major suppliers in South Africa.

9.) Estimated split between consumer and industrial segments in terms of share of volume.

Who would benefit from this report?

  • Investors
  • Consultants
  • Start-ups and potential new market entrants

Reasons to buy
  • Get a basic market overview without the padding.
  • Value for money.

Purchase
The report is available to purchase in Acentric's online store.


]]> Wed, 21 Mar 2018 16:18:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?sodium-hypochlorite-market-report---south-africa-2018 https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000020 <![CDATA[Consumer surveys reduce package redesign risk]]> imblog By Craig Kolb, Acentric Marketing Research (Pty) LTD, 16 March 2017

Changing packaging designs is a gamble at best. While a change can lead to an improvement in sales, it can just as easily lead to disaster. Flagging sales may be a spur to seeking fresh design, but ultimately it might be an unwise choice if not backed by sufficient survey-based research to underpin each design element change. It is also important to let professionals conduct the survey as incorrect conclusions can easily be reached, if the wrong questions or the wrong statistical analysis is used.

Measuring the impact of packaging design changes using surveys


Assuming the number of alternative new designs has been narrowed to a handful (preferably through a screening survey) package-testing surveys can be used to obtain deeper insights. You may not even be aware of some of the possibilities. Examples include search-time testing, stand out, recognition, tachistoscope evaluation, element identification (‘click on image’ questions) and positioning impact tests. Further, driver analysis might be helpful to determine how each element impacts on purchase intent.

Search times

Whenever an existing product’s packaging is redesigned search times are potentially impacted; at least in the short term. The more radical the change, the more likely it is that the average search time for your product on shelf will be negatively impacted. The immediate consequence is, that while consumers who have a strong preference for your brand may be willing to seek out the product again, this is less likely for those with only mild interest in your brand. If it is a crowded repertoire market, this problem is even more pronounced, because so called “100% loyals” make up a small proportion of the customer base.

How can market research help? Search times will eventually improve as consumers learn to identify your package again. But ideally it would be best to select the new design with the shortest search time, so that the short-term sales impact is minimised. Once search times improve, effective redesigns should result in increased sales, while bad redesigns may have the opposite effect. That is why it is important to research the impact on purchase intent in the same survey (discussed later).

Figure 1: An example of a search time question

Packaging stand out on shelf


With a new design it would be expected that your package may stand out on shelf less effectively than before. Familiar packages tend to do better in stand out testing. Stand out testing is typically conducted during a survey. Assessing the impact on stand provides allows you to identify which of the new alternatives is least likely to reduce stand out.

Packaging recognition at a distance


Another important area to test in packaging research is brand recognition. Are consumers able to still recognise the package design at a distance, even when text is not really visible? What percentage will confuse your new package with competitors – in effect helping competitors win accidental sales? Which of the new designs you are considering is correctly identified as belonging to your brand?

Tachistoscopes

Consumers tend to glance far more briefly – than we might hope – for at shelves. When consumers are close to the shelf, it is still possible that they will miss your package on a cluttered shelf. A tachistoscope test is a way of seeing what information comes across in a fraction of a second. Traditionally this might have required consumers to visit a special venue for testing, using a specially adapted projector and screen. Today, this can be done online. Key questions may include: Do they recognise the product category? Are consumers seeing your brand during the brief exposure?

Element identification questions

When you change a design, you need to ask “What elements play the key role in package recognition?”. Is it the colouring – is it especially unique? Is it the shape of the label, it is imagery in the background or perhaps font and text? While managers may be able to guess at this, it is always wise to see how far you can go with changes before consumers are confused.

This can either be gauged indirectly using experimental cells using the previously mentioned methods, or more cheaply by asking consumers directly to indicate which parts of a new pack are most familiar. You can also identify negative changes that consumers don’t like.

Package positioning

Measuring before and after positioning impact of package design – relative to competitors – might also be an important element of your packaging survey; if anything more than a slight design refresh is intended. Something as minor as a font change can have an impact on positioning. When meauring positioning you evaluate a variety of attributes; such as quality perceptions, perceptions of value and symbolic benefits.

Determine how packaging elements relate to purchase likelihood

By exposing consumers to the new packages during the survey and asking them to rate each design on various aspects, along with purchase intent ratings, an understanding can be gained of what impact each new element might have on purchase intent (this is often referred to as driver analysis). In this way you can screen out any negative changes that may negatively affect trial purchases of your new package.

It is important to know how to analyse this data, as you can easily reach the wrong conclusion when using sophisticated statistical models if assumptions are not checked and violations corrected.

Getting started

Do you have new package designs that you wish to evaluate? Make sure you understand where you are in the process:

  • Idea stage. At the idea stage, you have a new product concept, but no actual product. If this is the case concept testing surveys are more suitable. These surveys ensure the basic product concept is right, before moving to communication (package design is just one form of communication).
  • Package design images – broad field. If you have multiple designs – more than 5 or so – then you are still at the screening stage. A methodology suited to narrowing the field to a manageable size is necessary at this point.
  • Package design images – narrow field. If you have less than 5 design alternatives, then more detailed research can be executed to really understand the differences between the designs, so that you can finally zero in on the best design.
  • Existing product that needs to be redesigned. If you have existing product, if often pays to include a section to measure market performance relative to competitors – to get an understanding of how well your current design is performing. You can also assess weaknesses and strengths, as well as test new alternative designs to make sure you are moving forward, not backwards with your new designs.
]]> Thu, 16 Mar 2017 14:17:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?consumer-surveys-reduce-package-redesign-risk-1 https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000026 <![CDATA[Acentric survey: Takealot and Edgars are SA’s top online retailers for Christmas 2016]]> imblog According to a new survey completed in the first week of December, Takealot and Edgars are likely to be the most popular online retailers for Christmas 2016. The survey also revealed that almost a quarter of South Africans have reservations about shopping this Christmas. The survey was conducted by Acentric Marketing Research (Pty) LTD, using both online and telephonic survey modes (see technical note).

Nationally, 24% of South Africans are not likely to shop specifically for Christmas this year. As of early December, 36% still intended to complete their Christmas shopping, while 40% had already finished. Of those South Africans with internet access, almost 63% planned on shopping both online and at physical stores, while 35% intended on only shopping in physical stores.

“Around 55% of those with internet access expected to have to increase their spend this year on Christmas shopping, with 27% spending the same and only 15% expecting to be to spend less. An average spend of R4,300 is expected this year amongst internet enabled South Africans.” says Craig Kolb, MD of Acentric.



Takealot took the lead as SA’s most popular online retailer. “Takealot has grown immensely since this was last measured in 2012. I believe the takeover of Kalahari benefitted the brand tremendously. Many consumers still seem unaware of the takeover, however, as 16% of consumers still intend purchasing from the Kalahari brand.” says Kolb.

Takealot was followed by Edgars, Amazon, Zando, Pick n Pay, Makro and Woolworths. “Another notable result is the rise of the brick and mortar retailers. In 2012, traditional retailers hardly made a dent, bar a few supermarket retailers. Now everything has changed. Most notably Edgars, Pick n Pay, Makro, Woolworths, Dischem and Mr Price have now made large inroads into this space. I will know more once a more detailed post-Christmas survey – for the Online Retail Brand Report – is completed next year.” says Kolb.



Technical note: An online-panel survey using an ISO 20252 panel was conducted during the late November, early December period. Post-weighting was applied to provide approximate representation of the SA online population in terms of age, gender, ethnic group and household income. Depending on the questions, between 347 to 223 participants responded, yielding margins of error between 5.3% and 6.6% respectively, at a 95% confidence level (unadjusted for design effect). Average spend figures were rounded to the nearest R100.
]]> Mon, 12 Dec 2016 16:06:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?acentric-survey--takealot-and-edgars-are-sa-s-top-online-retailers-for-christmas-2016 https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000001F <![CDATA[Experiment: package design impact on consumer search times on shelf]]> imblog
By Craig Kolb, Acentric Marketing Research (Pty) LTD, 14 July 2016

A new study conducted by Acentric highlights the importance of package design in ensuring product packages are found on cluttered store shelves.

Acentric conducted an online-panel survey of 251 wine consumers in May 2016 to test the impact of search times for different wine bottle designs on a cluttered shelf. In total data was gathered for four different wine bottle designs. Each wine bottle (I will refer to these as packages for the rest of this article for the sake of consistency ) was placed in the same position on a virtual shelf. The shelf contained a standard set of packages; designed to simulate the clutter found on store shelves.

The experiment in brief


An experimental design with four different cells was used, with monadic exposure (i.e. in isolation without the other three). Monadic exposure ensures each package design is not interacting with the other package designs and that learning effects are eliminated. Each survey respondent was shown only one of the four packages, and asked to find this on a virtual shelf. Consumers were randomly allocated to each experimental cell.

Exposure and measures


In each case wine consumers were given an explanation before conducting the experiment. Each consumer was first shown the package design they had been randomly assigned to in isolation; before later being exposed to the virtual shelf. Each consumer was then timed to determine how long it took to find the specific package design on shelf.

Statistical analysis of consumer search times for packages


Outliers were removed prior to analysis. The search times were then evaluated for significant differences. Since parametric assumption violations occurred, a Kruskal-Wallace test was used instead of a one-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Ties were not likely given the continuous nature of the data and sample sizes, and this was confirmed by comparing the unadjusted result with the result adjusted for ties. The medians were compared and the null hypothesis of equal medians was rejected (0.05 level), meaning that at least one of the pairs had significant differences.

In order to identify significant differences between specific pairs of package designs, a Kruskal-Wallis Multiple-Comparison Z-Value Test was used. Package D, was significantly worse than each of the three other packages, with a median of 12.5 seconds. In comparison the best performing package (package B) had a median search time of 7.59 seconds. Package B’s median time was not significantly different from product packages A & C. These results were also confirmed using the stricter Bonferroni correction, which reduce experiment-wise Type I error.

Box plots are shown below of the results. As can be seen, package B not only had the lowest median time, dispersion of times is lower (they are more tightly bunched around the median). In particular the interquartile range is noticeably smaller than A and D. Package C is similarly distributed.

Figure 1: Time taken by consumers to find each package



In short, the results of this experiment show that better package designs not only reduce the median time, they improve the experiences of consumers across the board. Consumers with poorer eyesight and those paying less attention are less likely to be thwarted by clear, distinctive designs that stand out against the background noise of store shelves.

Going beyond this simple experiment, other research has shown that factors related to how the shelves are packed also affect search times. For instance, untidy shelves increase search times as the consumer’s cognitive load is increased; eliminating and filtering irrelevant packages. Additionally packages displayed at odd angles delay recognition. Another factor to consider related to shelf packing is the area taken by a specific brand on shelf. The same package – provided with four spaces on the facing is likely to perform better when this increases to eight spaces horizontally, and even better if it takes up multiple rows.

Copyright reserved, Acentric Marketing Research (Pty) LTD & Craig Kolb, 2016
]]> Thu, 14 Jul 2016 14:37:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?experiment--package-design-impact-on-consumer-search-times-on-shelf https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000027 <![CDATA[SA’s most popular toys for Christmas 2015]]> imblog Acentric’s latest survey identified Barbie and Frozen are the most desirable toy brands for girls in SA. For boys, cars and PlayStation game consoles are most popular. This is according to a new survey conducted by Acentric Marketing Research (Pty) LTD at the end of November 2015. The survey was representative of South Africans in metro areas in terms of age, gender, ethnic group and household income (see technical note).

Almost 90% of consumers surveyed intend or have already completed Christmas shopping this year. Amongst those parents buying presents for their children this Christmas, 60% expect to purchase toys. This was followed video games (31%), mainstream clothing (20%), personal electronics (19%), designer clothes (18%) and books (17%).

Amongst girls, dolls as a category top the list in terms of desirability. In terms of specific brands, Barbie and Frozen are reported by parents to be the most desirable brands this Christmas. “Barbie still manages to stay near the top of shopping lists, even though the brand is now more than 50 years old.” says Craig Kolb, MD of Acentric Marketing Research (Pty) LTD.

Amongst boys, the car category leads the way; with no particular toy brand or franchise standing out. In terms of specific product brands, the Sony PlayStation PS3/PS4 range of video-game related products was mentioned most frequently. “For Christmas 2015, PlayStation appears to be a more popular choice than XBOX and Nintendo.” says Kolb.



Another interesting finding relates to the divide between rich and poor South Africans this Christmas. The majority in SA’s top income bracket anticipate spending more on Christmas presents this year than they did last year, with average spend for the group standing firm in the face of SA’s economic problems.

“Approximately 57% of those in the top income bracket – defined as those earning more than R50,000 per month – were ready to spend more on presents this year; compared with 31% in the income bracket below. Survey participants in the top bracket now budget an average of R8,400 for Christmas presents – slightly more than that claimed in the previous period.” says Kolb.

Consumers in the top income bracket were also able to complete their shopping more quickly this year. “Approximately 32% of those in the top bracket had already completed Christmas shopping at the time of the survey, while only 15% of those in the R5,000 to R49,000 income bracket had done so. This may indicate greater uncertainty regarding available budgets, many it would seem are holding off on purchases until closer to Christmas day; possibly to reduce the risk of budget shortfalls. This has implications in terms of how retailers should stock and promote during the Christmas season. Promoting and discounting more affordable items closer to Christmas day may make sense.” says Kolb.

Those in the lowest income bracket – earning below R5,000 per month – are clearly suffering this Christmas. “Sadly one fifth do not intend on shopping for presents at all this year in the lowest bracket.  On average approximately R1,600 is budgeted for spend on Christmas presents in this bracket, not discounting over claim. In part this spending may take the form of everyday necessity purchases, such as food, re-tasked as gifts.” says Kolb.

Technical note:

An online-panel survey using an ISO 20252 panel was conducted during November 2015. Post-weighting was applied to provide approximate representation of the SA metro population in terms of age, gender, ethnic group and household income. In total 300 interviews were completed yielding a 5.6% margin of error at 95% confidence level. Average spend figures were rounded to the nearest R100.


]]> Sat, 05 Dec 2015 10:58:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?sa-s-most-popular-toys-for-christmas-2015 https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000001E <![CDATA[SA’s Top Restaurant Brands Report 2015 released]]> imblog Spur has been identified as South Africa’s leading restaurant brand. This is according to a new report released today by Acentric Marketing Research (Pty) LTD titled “South African Restaurant Brands 2015”. Spur was closely followed by McDonald’s, Ocean Basket, Mugg & Bean, and Wimpy. In total 45 brands were evaluated, with customers evaluating each of the brands on a broad range of attributes (see technical note). The report is based on a survey conducted in November 2014 and is representative of restaurant customers with household incomes in excess of R5,000.

Each brand was ranked according to its Acentric Brand Model (ABM) Index, a measure of customer-based-brand equity. The index combines 17 attributes; covering product, service, functionality, value for money, brand image and enjoyment. Brand equity correlates moderately with a brand’s share of customers in the market and indicates growth potential.

“Brand-equity should not be confused with measures such as the size of the customer base, sales or market share; it is instead a measure of the potential for success, not the actual result. This is because factors external to consumer psychology, such as the number of outlets, can inhibit or enhance success.” says Craig Kolb, MD of Acentric.

Spur, excelled on child friendliness, enjoyable experiences and good interior design. Runner up McDonald’s excelled in terms of child friendliness, fast service and good locations.



Overall customers considered quality food to be one of the most important attributes. “While not one of Spur’s top listed strengths, the restaurant’s still performed well enough in this area; and when combined with its outstanding performance in other areas, it excels as a brand. As for the other brands, it appears there is substantial variation in perceptions of food quality. Woolworths was one of the top performers in this area.” says Craig Kolb, MD of Acentric.

In addition to food quality considerations, there is a global trend towards customers demanding healthier menu options. Perceptions of an unhealthy menu seem to have afflicted certain restaurant chains, with certain celebrities becoming embroiled in debates over food health. “As a result, perceptions of food health were measured this year. While food health isn’t the worst performing attribute on average, there is extensive variation in performance by brand. Kauai was one of the stronger brands in this area, but oddly Woolworths did not feature as strongly as expected. Differences also exist by demographic – for instance gluten/grain concerns are foremost in higher-income households. It is a concern, that even amongst expensive chains, gluten is hard to avoid.” says Kolb.

Cleanliness was also very important to customers. “While in general, restaurants were perceived to perform well on the cleanliness attribute, there is again substantial variation brand to brand. Vida e Café did well in this area as did Europa.” says Kolb.

The research also quantified the frequency of general annoyances – not linked to any specific brand. Besides hygiene, rude waiters and staff who talk loudly are an issue. “Interestingly there are significant differences between segments when it comes to what is considered annoying. For instance, eye contact is more of an issue for certain age groups, while some segments are significantly more likely to take issue with waiters who stand in close proximity when tips are calculated. Bad cell phone reception and order confusion sensitivity is also group specific.” says Kolb.

Technical note

The survey was conducted using an ISO certified online-panel of 363 restaurant customers yielding a margin of error of +-5.1% at 95% confidence level. Respondents were weighted to approximately represent middle and upper income customers in terms of age, gender, race and ethnic group
]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2015 10:34:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?sa-s-top-restaurant-brands-report-2015-released https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000001D <![CDATA[Majority of SA’s middle & upper income shoppers still upbeat this Christmas]]> imblog
A substantial proportion of SA’s middle and upper income consumers intend to spend more than last year in spite of the slowing economy. This is a according to the Acentric Christmas Shopping Intentions Survey 2014, a survey of over 400 South African shoppers. The survey was completed on the 9th of November 2014. The survey is representative of middle and upper income South Africans in terms of age, gender, race and household income. According to the survey, shoppers have a more practical focus– in contrast to more affluent US shoppers who have a greater luxury and technology focus. Food and mainstream clothing are top items in SA, along with alcohol – an item which is more likely to be at the bottom of US shoppers’ lists. Price is also very important, as evidenced by the popularity of discount stores.

For the most part, SA’s middle and upper income groups remain unaffected by signs of a worsening economic outlook, with approximately 34% intent on spending more this year while 38% intend on spending about the same as the previous year. A minority (26%) intend on spending less. In contrast affluent US consumers seem less content. According to a study by The Schullman Research Centre in New York, only 13% of affluent Americans intend on spending more, while 69% intend on spending the same as last year.

What may be surprising to some is that online shopping is now almost equal in importance to conventional distribution channels. “Almost 31% intend on doing at least some of their shopping online this year, making online almost equal to mainstream stores (36%) in terms of purchase intentions within the middle and upper income brackets. While these consumers may only buy a small number of items online and still complete the rest of their shopping in conventional brick and mortar stores, the fact that so many are being exposed to the online experience means greater opportunity for future growth as consumers learn to trust and enjoy online shopping.” says Craig Kolb MD of Acentric Marketing Research (Pty) LTD.

In terms of the types of items that shoppers are interested in purchasing, food leads the way with 55% intending to purchase Christmas related foods; followed by toys (48%) and mainstream clothing & accessories (41%). “The results imply a focus on essentials rather than luxuries; shoppers seem to view utility as a key guiding principle behind their purchases in most cases. The popularity of gift cards also indicates a practical focus, with 35% intending on purchasing gift cards rather than selecting a potentially unwanted gift. It seems the stigma around gift cards has lifted somewhat – however we still lag the US, where gift cards are preferred over material gifts, particularly amongst affluent consumers. I am also pleased to note that 25% intend on purchasing books, which should be a welcome boost to our relatively small publishing industry.” says Kolb.

Of interest to retailers may be the fact that only 4% of shoppers claim to have already completed their Christmas purchases. “Given that the survey ran early November, one would expect more shopping to have been completed already. Intentions to purchase and the types of products vary by demographic segment. For instance, going forward we can expect most of the spend to come from younger shoppers, as those over 50 are far less likely to purchase in the coming weeks.” says Kolb.

As in 2013, a comprehensive online retail brand survey will be completed after Christmas to examine the previous years online shopping activities. The Online Retail Brands Report will be released in February 2015.

For more information on the Acentric Christmas Intentions Survey slide deck click here.



Technical note
The margin of error is approximately 8.9% at a 95% confidence level including design error, and assuming a worst-case proportion of 0.5 (50%). Reported proportions, larger or smaller than 0.5 (50%) have smaller margins of error (i.e. more accurate) with the same base size. Note different questions and cross-tabulations may have different base sizes depending on whether or not a question was applicable to the specific respondent.








]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2014 10:29:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?majority-of-sa-s-middle---upper-income-shoppers-still-upbeat-this-christmas https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000001C <![CDATA[Green survey highlights energy and water problems in SA cities]]> imblog
There is widespread dissatisfaction amongst city residents regarding energy services and pollution. This is the finding of the people’s Green Cities Barometer which was commissioned by the Justice and Peace Commission of the Catholic Bishops of Southern Africa (SACBC) and conducted by Acentric Marketing Research (Pty) LTD.

The survey was conducted using Acentric’s online panel amongst South Africans living in key metro areas. Residents rated the cities on 46 different factors; grouped into seven emission reduction areas: energy, waste, water, sanitation, air quality, transport and environmental governance topics. The new survey is to be used to track public perceptions of the social and environmental performance of the metros.

SA’s cities score relatively well in a certain areas. The top five factors, which all obtained net positive scores included: ride and park schemes during sports and recreational events (36), the rapid bus system (15), mobilising citizens to use less electricity at peak times (14), ensuring 50% of garbage is recycled by 2050 (13), ensuring townships/informal settlements can access water (12).
Not all aspects of city life were seen as positive however. “Unfortunately the analysis showed that more residents were dissatisfied than satisfied with the performance of the cities on 34 of the 46 factors measured. Of particularly concern to respondents is our continued reliance on coal.” say Craig Kolb, MD of Acentric.

The ten worst performing areas, all of which obtained negative scores included: obtaining at least 50% of electricity from renewable resources (-42), ensuring poor have access to energy efficient technology for heating if they don’t have access to electricity (-35), ensuring the poor have access to solar panel water heaters (-33), ensuring city street lights use energy derived from solar (-32), establishing bicycle for hire scheme (-32), management inspectors to stop pollution (-31), ensuring traffic lights are solar powered (-31), addressing mine related dust from mines and tailing dams (-30), addressing refuse dumping in townships/informal settlements (-27), establishing projects for harvesting rain water (-23).

“We appeal to the metropolitan municipalities to develop new energy and climate strategies that factor the survival issues of the urban poor, including the waste pickers and the women in the informal settlements who are in most cases at the receiving end of energy poverty. Dust pollution from mines should also receive urgent attention. ” says Bishop Gabuza.

Residents of the following cities were included in the survey: Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality, Eastern Cape; City of Cape Town Metropolitan Municipality, Western Cape; City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality, Gauteng; City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality, Gauteng; Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality, Gauteng; eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal; Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality, Free State; Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality, Eastern Cape.

Technical note: Over 300 South Africans were interviewed using an online panel. Weights were applied to improve representation in order to approximate the profile of those living in Metro areas in terms of gender, age, race and household income.
Affiliates



]]> Tue, 14 Oct 2014 10:14:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?green-survey-highlights-energy-and-water-problems-in-sa-cities https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000001B <![CDATA[Marketing Research Trends for 2014]]> imblog By Craig Kolb, Acentric Marketing Research
As published on Bizcommunity, 17 January 2014

The coming year promises to be an exciting one, with many new technologies and promising trends on the horizon. From the integration of big data and samples, to the growth of open panels and the tantalising possibility of automated marketing management; 2014 should be an interesting year.

‘Big data’ and traditional samples will come to be seen as complimentary

Big data pundits have pronounced the end of sampling on more than one occasion. More often than not, they seem to come from an IT or data mining background and haven’t looked beyond –  what is for the most part –  observational and transactional data.

Big data will never entirely replace samples for the simple reason that marketers still need to ask questions; at which point 100% response rates become impractical.

A poor understanding of sampling theory, adds to the confusion, with the automatic assumption that a full census is always vastly better than a sample, which of course is not true – typically the improvement in accuracy is miniscule – and the gains are confounded by other forms of error inherent in the data being collected.

Further than that, the human executive at the end of the process shouldn’t be forgotten. As humans we sample – we have a limited ability to process and experience data. Big data is fairly useless unless it conforms to our limitations (at least as long as humans are still making the decisions!). While certain types of data may be collected ‘continuously’, analytics and reporting tools do better by delivering it to users in significant chunks.

Bottom line – samples are here to stay, and the impact of big data on traditional surveys will most likely be felt in terms of what questions are asked, rather than in terms of outright replacement – sample-based surveys are in fact increasingly frequent, not less so.


Online-survey panels increasingly important and increasingly diverse

Five years ago, online surveys were rarely used. Today, they are more commonly used than telephonic and face-to-face surveys. Much of the credit must go to online panels, which have made the process of conducting online surveys practical. Online panels consist of large pools of pre-recruited and profiled consumers, providing a ready and immediate resource to researchers. Further than that, panels have improved quality by making incentives a regular feature of the survey process – while traditional approaches typically left consumers unrewarded. Panels have moved online surveys from the ‘hit and miss’ list-based approaches to a viable approach with high response rates. CINT, a Swedish company has moved panels a step further by turning them into an open market place that can benefit from multiple sources, rather than only relying on single-source panels built by research firms.


Rapid online surveys – a damaging trend

Demands for rapid turnaround continue unabated. While online panels have speeded up the process of collecting data, the rest of the research process is for the most part, as slow as ever. Software and processing speeds may have increased, but the human mind is limited in terms of absorption and interpretation of information. Yet, having had a taste of increases in speed in every area of life, many clients are increasingly impatient. The typical solution is to increase the number of invites to panellists – so while the rest of the process timeline remains relatively constant, the data collection timeline shrinks. In fact, certain European panels have millions of panellists and so are able to provide hundreds of responses within an hour or less.

However this a sure-fire way of decreasing the quality of the sample, since early responders have very different profiles to late responders. Stopping a survey after only a few hours means introducing serious biases into the sample. Good survey data collection timelines should be calculated in weeks not hours.



Social media

Social media analysis will continue to grow in importance as a supplementary means of gathering qualitative insights into what consumers are thinking. While some have claimed it would replace traditional research, this is unlikely due to the unguided nature of social media research. Further, social media research is prone to the same ‘acting’ and ‘lemming effect’ problems inherent in focus groups. One-on-one interviews produce an altogether different kind of data.



Automated marketing managers

‘Dream teams’,  Fortune magazine’s annual list of the best executives may be replaced by ‘dream AIs’.

Given the growing supply of data, the one bottle neck in the system is the human executive. Many careers have been automated out of existence, while others have been enhanced – freeing up time to focus on more important activities. While managers may have once seemed impossible to replace, artificial intelligence is already replacing managers in some areas. An obvious example is Google ads, which have automated bid managers that decide what to pay for advertising, the prominence of advertising, when to advertise and where to advertise – replacing the role played by media planners to some extent. As artificial intelligence improves, and the ability to integrate the views of multiple stakeholders improves, major policy decision may eventually decentralise. ‘The wisdom of crowds’ notion has already been shown to have some merit, and the day may come where major strategic decisions are left to Swiss-style ‘direct democracies’ fed by recommendations from artificial intelligence systems such as Watson.
]]> Fri, 17 Jan 2014 10:12:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?marketing-research-trends-for-2014 https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000001A <![CDATA[South African marketing research industry trends – 2013 and beyond]]> imblog
By Craig Kolb, Acentric Marketing Research Pty (LTD)
As published on Bizcommunity.com

Predicting the future is a hazardous business, ever more so as we move along Kurzweil’s exponential curve of technological advancement – and it seems we are at a point where technology advances so quickly it is almost unsettling. Of course it is a matter of perception, but for what it is worth, my subjective experience over the past five years has been one where a disturbingly high number of ‘impossibles’ have suddenly become ‘possible’.

Just a sample – we went from the warp drives of science fiction being ‘impossible’ to plausible with Dr. Harold White’s work in this area, junk DNA no longer being junk, the discovery of the Higgs Boson, suspended animation in animals, induced pluripotent stem cells, growing new organs in the laboratory, and the social media explosion. Perhaps more importantly for market researchers, smartphones reached a price point and level of appeal that has caused them to achieve rapid penetration of the market.

Online panels will continue to grow in importance

As I mentioned last year, online surveys are set to supplant other survey modes. The growth in smartphones and increasing undersea cable capacity has caused us to jump to an entirely different diffusion curve. According to Gartner, smartphones will reach 80% penetration by 2014, a game-changing statistic.1 By then I would expect online surveys to have become the data collection mainstay.

More DIY research

The appearance of low-cost, user-friendly research tools has meant that clients, should they so wish, can conduct their own basic research. Acentric’s online consumer panel has experienced increasing demand – yet much of this is from international clients who are far more comfortable with this mode than local companies.
I believe this trend will continue in 2013, with more end-clients conducting their own research via online panels.

Growing importance of analytics

When I started out in research I recall being surprised to find that one of the largest market research firms of the day had only two statisticians on staff, since the bulk of client requirements involved simple tabulation which was left to the client-facing staff. Today this model is under threat as cloud-based solutions make it easy for laymen to execute surveys online and obtain simple descriptive ‘reports’. Marketing research firms can no longer rest on their ability to reach the consumer as the main value proposition and still get away with dumping descriptive tables in the client’s lap. While at present this trend applies mainly to lower cost ‘field and tab’ type projects, advances in software will no doubt gradually up the ante. Research firms will increasingly need to focus on advanced analytics, interpretation, explanation and presentation in order to stay ahead of advances in user-friendly software.

Reshaping the NPD research market

3D printers will change the way in which a significant percentage of the population obtains material objects. I don’t believe it will entirely displace traditional techniques, nor will it be adopted by everyone; but within certain ‘high-involvement’ markets – such as jewellery – where individualism is valued, it is certain to rock the boat. While this means less research budget in these areas, it may mean increasing spend by 3D printer manufacturers and service providers (such as Shapeways).

Decline in demand for interviewers

An unfortunate consequence of advances in technology is job losses. In particular I expect interviewing and data capture/OMR centres to be hardest hit, especially between 2013 and 2015. Although interviewers will always be necessary for projects requiring a high degree of interaction, I would expect demand for interviewers to drop significantly over this period.

Chatbot-augmented online interviewing

Back in 2006 I began experimenting with online survey software and realised that online surveys had one major weakness – an inability to probe responses to open-ended questions. It was at that time that I recalled Eliza, a ‘toy’ chatbot programme used to teach me programming as a child. I reasoned that modifying the behaviour of such a program might provide a way to substitute for the loss of the interviewer.
I began a search for a chatbot software platform that was open to modification and to my delight found ‘Elizabeth’, a unique chatbot created by Prof. Peter Millican of Oxford University. I was able to set up Elizabeth so that it successfully probed responses to questions – producing far richer responses than could have been hoped for if left to self-completion. Subsequently Prof. Millican and I presented a paper at the MRS conference4 which examined feasibility, laid out success criteria for evaluating chatbot performance, and examined the trade-offs researchers would need to make. Prof. Millican and I are now revisiting this concept with a view to producing an online version of Elizabeth capable of augmenting online surveys. We are hoping that chatbots will not only improve response quality to open ends, but may also contribute to respondent engagement – another key area of concern at present.2

Data visualisation and graphics quality

As a society, we have come to a point where we take quality graphics for granted. From Hollywood to office software, graphics and artwork have become ever more polished. Unfortunately this makes the market researcher’s job ever more difficult, since much of the research software available produces output that always seems to be a step behind the curve. It is one of the mysteries of marketing research – why on earth do so many software vendors seem to lose interest at the reporting module stage? Perhaps this is more wishful thinking than a trend, but there are hints of a revival of interest in ‘data visualisation’ (sometimes called infographics).3 Hopefully this will spur survey solution vendors to at least pay more attention to their reporting modules, even if they don’t implement everything the ‘data visualisation’ movement is punting.

References

1. Jones, N. “Gartner Symposium on Innovation in the Cape Town International Convention Centre”. Reported by Daniel, J. (2010) “Smartphones to rule by 2014, predicts Gartner”, Meme Burn. Website: http://memeburn.com/2010/09/smartphones-to-rule-by-2014-predicts-gartner/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+memeburncom+%28memeburn%29. Accessed: 10 January 2013.
2. Gittelman, S. (2012) “The war against unengaged online respondents”, Quirks Marketing Review. Website: http://www.quirks.com/articles/2012/20121211.aspx. Accessed: 8 January 2012.
3. Tarran, B. (2013) “Telling tales”, Research-Live. Website: http://www.research-live.com/features/data-visualisation/telling-tales/4008954.article. Accessed: 8 January 2013.
4. Craig Kolb and Peter Millican (2006), “Connecting with Elizabeth: Using artificial intelligence as a data collection aid”, Connections, MRS annual conference, 22-24 March 2006, Barbican London.
Affiliates

Copyright © 2010-2020. All Rights Reserved.


]]> Sun, 27 Oct 2013 09:58:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?south-african-marketing-research-industry-trends---2013-and-beyond https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000017 <![CDATA[Acentric shows employees are more likely to be attracted by offers of shorter hours than higher salary]]> imblog South African employees would rather work less hours than earn higher remuneration. Jobs that are closer to home also require less remuneration. These are the findings of an online-panel survey of 345 South Africans in the metro areas, conducted by Acentric Marketing Research, in September 2012. The survey had a +-5.3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.

Employees were shown a scientifically selected set of job offers, which varied in terms of work hours, travel time to work and pay relative to their current levels of pay. They were asked to indicate their level of interest in each offer.

“The results showed that, on average, shorter work hours were more attractive than an equivalent increase in salary. This applies in a single ‘monadic’ job offer scenario, the dynamics become more complex in different job-offer contexts. Interestingly, reduced travel time to work has a similar effect to increased salary.” says Craig Kolb, spokesperson for Acentric.

“While as a general rule it could be said that employees prefer shorter hours to an equivalent increase in salary, the effect does vary by age. The is most pronounced amongst the youngest group below 25 years, who really prefer time over money. However, when you get to employees in the 25 to 34 year range, things change and salary is valued almost as much as time. When you move to the oldest bracket above 50 years, the pattern reverses again – time being valued relatively more than money. However in an absolute sense, the oldest group places more value on money than the youngest group.” says Kolb.

A substantial number – approximately 28% of employees – are forecast to resign over the period October 2012 to September 2013 according to Acentric, and so it is important to identify the resignation drivers within each organisation. While a fixed percentage will resign anyway, due to a wide variety of ‘on the job’ and ‘personal factors’ measured in the survey – such as lack of trust and poor communication – some may be actively poached by head hunters.

Pre-existing intentions to resign seem to have little to do with responsiveness to unsolicited offers. “Employees who were not currently interested in looking for alternative employment were just as responsive to the new job offers as those who were already intending to leave. However, those who were more engaged ‘emotionally’ to the company were slightly less likely to respond to an offer.” stated Kolb.

Engagement also has other benefits. For example, engagement improves employee perceptions of company performance. “A significant relationship was found between engagement and perceived sales performance, perceptions of customer service quality, how honest employees were with customers and sales-growth perceptions. Keeping this in mind, it is important to point out that older employees tend to be more engaged on average than younger employees.” says Kolb.

Brand equity is another factor to consider. “A weak brand tends to increase resignation intentions slightly. Companies with strong brands are more likely to retain employees.” says Kolb.

Technical note: Survey conducted using an ISO certified online-panel. Post-weighting applied to improve non-response bias as per ANES standard.



]]> Fri, 22 Mar 2013 10:02:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?acentric-shows-employees-are-more-likely-to-be-attracted-by-offers-of-shorter-hours-than-higher-salary https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000019 <![CDATA[Healthcare-service quality, an unfolding tradegy]]> imblog The reputation of the Minister of Health has worsened substantially in a number of areas since September 2012 – with a significant improvement in only one area. This is the conclusion reached by a survey completed in January 2013, which shows substantially poorer results than an earlier survey conducted in September 2012. The survey was commissioned by Patient First and is conducted by Acentric Marketing Research on a quarterly basis. The survey is conducted amongst an online sample of over 300 South Africans (see technical note).

“The overall performance score has dropped precipitously, from a high of 15% in February 2012. There was a slight reversal of trend in September 2012, when the overall score recovered to 10% from a previous low of 7% in June, but it seems the decline has recommenced, with the score for the January 2013 period settling at a new low of 2%.” says Craig Kolb, spokesperson for Acentric.

The minister’s work related to hospital management, was the worst performing area. At present only 2% of respondents regard his performance as ‘very good’ a decline of 4% over the previous period. The minister’s work to reduce the problem of obesity is also seen in a similarly poor light.

The next worst in terms of ranking, are perceptions regarding the ministers performance in dealing with the shortage of doctors and nurses (3% regard this as ‘very good’), while escalating private health costs (4%) and renal dialysis (4%) are also poor performers.

“In absolute terms, these ratings were already poor, and the fact they have fallen even further is a concern. I believe that this reflects what is happening on the ground – based on our Hospital Service Standards Barometer. The general publics’ perception is most likely influenced by a combination of personal experiences, word of mouth and the media.” says Father Stan Muyebe, spokesperson for Patient First.

The largest decline relates to the minister’s work to reduce the number of individuals infected by HIV (-11%). This was followed by his work to tackle the problem of obesity (-8%) and his work to ensure babies receive full immunisation within the first year (-8%).

The only area to show a significant improvement over the previous period, was the minister’s initiatives aimed at increasing life expectancy.

It appears patients hold a similar view to the general public. The Hospital Service Standards Barometer, a tracking survey conducted by Patient First with analytical assistance provided by Acentric, involves interviewing over 10,000 hospital outpatients a year as they leave government hospitals in KZN. In most areas the 2012 results are substantially worse than in 2011.

Particularly noteworthy are the 18% who report that the pharmacy was out of stock of the required medication at the time of their visit, the 74% who report that pharmacies are failing to explain dosage information and the 25% who report that the hospital had lost their patient file.



Technical note: The survey was conducted between December 2012 and January 2013. A random sample of respondents was drawn from an ISO certified online panel maintained by Acentric Marketing Research. Post-weighting was applied to correct for non-response bias and to improve representation of the demographics of those living in the major urban centres (metropolitan areas). In total 300 interviews were used in the analysis, providing a 5.7% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.




]]> Mon, 11 Mar 2013 10:00:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?healthcare-service-quality,-an-unfolding-tradegy https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000018 <![CDATA[SA’s Top Restaurant Brands]]> imblog Spur has been identified as SA’s leading restaurant brand, according to the results of a survey conducted by Acentric Marketing Research. The survey was conducted in the first quarter of 2012 and included 21 restaurant-chain brands. The survey was conducted amongst a scientifically selected sample of 364 online panelists living in the metro regions, and has a margin of error of 5.2% (see technical note).

In total, 21 restaurant brands were ranked according to the ABM (Acentric Brand Model) Index. The top five most powerful brands were identified as: Spur with the largest ABM index score of 15%, closely followed by KFC (14%), Mug & Bean (12%), McDonalds (9%) and Woolworths (8%).

“The ABM Index is a proven index of brand equity, which strongly correlates with market share (0.9 correlation). The ABM Index in essence, is based on the mental associations each brand elicits in the consumer’s mind. Fifteen areas were covered, grouped into six major performance topics. These included: Product (food), service quality, value for money, functional benefits, image and patron enjoyment.” says Craig Kolb, Principal Consultant at Acentric Marketing Research.

“In general, across all the brands, the most important drivers of brand equity identified in the survey, were how the food tastes and value for money. In tough economic conditions, restaurant owners have been hard pressed to deliver the same quality without raising prices, and those that manage to still deliver palatable dishes at the right price are likely to win share.” says Kolb.

The restaurant industry is a very competitive industry, with no one truly dominant player. “SA’s restaurant chains have a low Herfindahl index of approximately 0.1, meaning that there is very little concentration of power in terms of market shares. Loyalty is also weak; the typical patron goes through 7 different brands in a month. Very few are 100% loyal, for instance only 0.13% of Spur customers are estimated to be 100% loyal in a month.” says Kolb.

Amongst those who go to a restaurant /take-away at least once in a month, the typical visit frequency is 20 times per month, at an estimated-average cost of approximately R1,000 per month. “In the first quarter of 2012, restaurant industry revenue was just over 9 billion Rand. The industry grew on a quarter-on-quarter basis over 2011, though fast foods grew at a much larger rate than restaurants.” says Kolb.
































Technical note: A random sample of respondents was drawn, stratified by age and gender from an ISO certified panel. Post-weighting was applied to correct for non-response bias. In total 364 interviews were used in the analysis, providing a 5.2% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.



Affiliates

Copyright © 2010-2020. All Rights Reserved.


]]> Thu, 28 Jun 2012 09:11:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?sa-s-top-restaurant-brands https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000016 <![CDATA[Urban South Africans donate an average of R605 per year to charitable causes]]> imblog Urban South Africans spend R605 on charity per year. Childrens’ rights take the largest share of charity spending (44.5%) followed by car guards (27.1%), beggars (9.2%) and animal rights organisations (9.2%). Environmental protection agencies (5.4%), womens’ rights (3.4%)and mens’ rights (1.3%) receive the smallest share of spend. The survey was conducted online by Acentric Marketing Research amongst 307 South Africans living in the large metropolitan centres. The survey was designed to be representative of metropolitan residents in terms of age, household income, gender and ethnic group. The metropolitan areas make up half the income earned in South Africa.

Urban South Africans spend R605 per year or just under 0.5% of household income on charity per year.

“Noticeable differences occur in spending patterns across age groups. Younger South Africans’ in the 16 to 24 age range spend the largest proportion of their donations on car guards and beggars, while South Africans’ over 50 instead prefer to spend on childrens’ rights organisations.” says Craig Kolb, Principal Consultant at Acentric Marketing Research.

The rising prominence of the mens’ rights movement is also evident as younger South Africans are more likely to donate money to mens’s rights organisations than older respondents above 34 years.

Men spend a greater share on environmental protection agencies than women, while women are more likely to donate money to womens’ rights organisations than men. Overall men spend more on charity than women (R642 versus R561 per year).

When it comes to differences by income bracket, the highest income brackets spend more on charity. Those earning more than R99,000 per month, donate on average R1,323 per year while lower income brackets below R2,500 donate just under R200 per year. “Interestingly, even though higher-income households donate more, these donations are smaller relative to total income. Of course this does not take into account higher taxation rates, which is an indirect form of donation.” says Kolb.

In the final analysis of over 100 profile variables, business ownership, travel by air and investment behaviour were the most telling predictors of how much would be donated to charity. Business owners, and the retired proved to make far larger contributions on average (R1,440) than those who work or study (R330). However of those who work/study, those that travel by air are bigger donors than those who don’t – especially those who are active investors (R603).






Technical note: Margins of error for the percentages reported vary depending on the percentage answering yes to a question. For percentages close to 50% the margin of error is 5.6% (at 95% confidence level) while the margin of error for smaller percentages are smaller – for instance if 10% answer yes to a question, the margin of error improves to 3.5%.
]]> Fri, 30 Mar 2012 09:03:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?urban-south-africans-donate-an-average-of-r605-per-year-to-charitable-causes https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000015 <![CDATA[Communication problems in KZN hospital pharmacies in alarming state]]> imblog The majority of patients at government hospitals are being exposed to unnecessary risks according to research conducted by Acentric and Patient First. Patient First has called on the Department of Health to address the communication skills in the hospital pharmacies in KwaZulu-Natal and other provinces in South Africa. Between May and November 2011, Patient First randomly collected the stories and experiences of 10,969 outpatients exiting 22 hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal. With the technical assistance of Acentric Marketing Research, Patient First has produced a report that has ranked the 22 hospitals in terms of their performance in reducing the problem of non-communication of dosage instructions.

The report for November reveals that, in the majority of hospitals surveyed, 80% or more of the outpatients do not receive dosage instructions when collecting their medication at the pharmacy. This includes the semi-illiterate patients who are taking TV and ARV treatment.

“This is worrying since patients who do not understand dosage instructions are at risk of using the medication in a way that endangers their health. The ramification of an 80% or worse failure rate in most of the government hospitals, is that the majority of the community is being put to unnecessary risks through poor communication at the hospital pharmacies. It is a problem that requires urgent intervention.” says Craig Kolb, of Acentric Marketing Research.

The highest percentage of complaints, when it came to pharmacy staff not communicating dosage instructions, came from the patients using Untunjambili, Ladysmith and Edendale hospitals. The problem is unacceptably high in the three hospitals, with more than 95% of patients complaining of this problem. Worse still, when viewed over time through 2011, the problem is getting worse in the three hospitals.

Ntombikayise Ncube, one of the patients at Edendale hospital, reported: “The people who work at the pharmacy are very impatient. They do not have time for us. When we ask them to explain the dosage instructions, they tell us that it is not part of their job description.”

Patient First intends to continue collecting patient stories and monitoring the problem in 2012 with the assistance of Acentric. “We are aware that a number of public hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal now have a formal mechanism for collecting and processing patient complaints. Many patients do not however use these mechanisms for fear of reprisals. We shall therefore continue to collect patient experiences in the hospitals, especially their commendation and complaints of the services in the hospitals, to offer citizens an alternative mechanism through which they can cast a spotlight on the hospitals where patient care problems are unacceptably high.“ says Father Stan Muyebe, the coordinator for the Patient First initiative.
Affiliates

Copyright © 2010-2020. All Rights Reserved.


]]> Mon, 05 Mar 2012 08:56:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?communication-problems-in-kzn-hospital-pharmacies-in-alarming-state https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000014 <![CDATA[What annoys South Africans most about their waiters?]]> imblog A new survey reveals the hidden issues restaurant patrons have with their waiters. The two most annoying problems, according to the survey of South African restaurant patrons, relate to issues of speed and attitude. The survey was conducted by Acentric Marketing Research in January and was designed to be representative of those living in metropolitan areas who made use of restaurants. Both conventional restaurants and fast food franchises with a sit-down section were included.

In total 69% of restaurant patrons complained about waiters being slow to deliver, while 41% complained about waiters being slow to bring the bill after requesting it. The third most frequently mentioned issue was a lack of friendliness (32%). Closely following this, inconveniences such as not bringing sauces (28%), forgetting milk/sugar (6%) or placing items on reading material (2%) were also mentioned.


Other issues, which were mentioned less often, were in order of frequency:

  • Getting orders wrong
  • Cold food/drinks
  • Being slow to approach a patron on arrival (or not returning after seating them)
  • Ignoring special instructions
  • Disappearing/not being able to get attention
  • Overly-frequent checking
  • Untrained waiters
  • Leaning over patrons or not respecting personal space
  • Trying to rush patrons

“Interestingly, South Africans under 49 years of age were significantly more demanding than older patrons. In particular issues such as ‘friendliness’ and ‘not bringing sauces/jam/butter to match dish’ annoyed younger patrons. The older generation seems to be more concerned with the mechanical aspects of the process, such as speed.” says Craig Kolb, of Acentric Marketing Research.

It seems it’s the little things matter and can make the difference between an exceptional experience or just another experience you would rather forget. “Unfortunately, only a minority of waiters have the natural charm, knowledge and self-awareness required to deliver exceptional service. This means restaurant owners need to invest more time in screening and training waiters in order to improve service delivery.” Says Kolb.


Monitoring is also crucial if there is any hope of controlling service quality. Without a quantitative measure of how your waiters are performing you have little control.


“Most restaurants rely on patrons to flag issues, but this is far from ideal as many patrons would rather not bother. Nor does it help if the manager does spot checks, as many patrons require anonymity in order to express their true feelings. While some restaurants do attempt to formalise the process with rating cards – this is research at its worst – since patrons know their waiter is going to see the answers.” says Kolb.

Technical note: The survey was conducted amongst an online panel of 369 patrons, providing a margin of error of 5.1% (95% confidence level).




]]> Mon, 05 Mar 2012 08:38:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?what-annoys-south-africans-most-about-their-waiters- https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000011 <![CDATA[Survey: South African's want a direct democracy]]> imblog
A survey conducted by Acentric in 2012 showed that the majority of South Africans are in favour of direct democracy.
Currently South Africa is a representative democracy, the most common form of democracy in the world.

In total 312 respondents were interviewed. Respondents were weighted to ensure the sample was representative of the metro regions of SA in terms of age, gender and household income.

The Swiss-Style Direct Democracy Concept


Survey respondents were introduced to the principle of direct democracy with the following statement:

SA has a 'representative' system of democracy, like the USA and Britain. This means once politicians are voted in, they essentially can do what they want for 4 to 5 years until voted out.

In contrast, Switzerland has a direct democracy. This means that the people have direct control over the government every single day. The people can stop legislation they don't like, and can remove politicians they don't like, using a referendum system, that is activated once a few thousand signatures are collected.

Some of the unique aspects of Switzerland:

· Switzerland was not affected as much as other European countries during the credit crunch.
· Switzerland has the highest innovation rate in Europe.
· Switzerland has one of the lowest tax rates in Europe.
· Switzerland has one of the highest income levels in the world.

The results

The most popular statement was "I think direct democract should be implemented in SA", with the majority (55%) agreeing with the statement. This was followed by "I think direct democracy would mean a more competent government" (52%) and "Our system of democracy does not deliver" (47%). However, most did seem to realise the challenges of implementation with only 27% agreeing that "I think direct democracy would be easy to implement with modern technology".


]]> Wed, 29 Feb 2012 20:17:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?survey--south-african-s-want-a-direct-democracy https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000002B <![CDATA[Building the Saab brand: BMW and other factors]]> imblog

Introduction

This article examines some of the issues surrounding the Saab brand. A nationally representative survey of 112 respondents in the UK (Saab’s most lucrative European market outside of Sweden) and existing literature is used in support of the analysis.

BMW’s partnership with Saab, announced last month, drew a large amount of positive press attention for Saab. As the larger partner BMW has little to worry about in terms of the effect on its brand equity, however the Saab brand is in a more precarious position.

Saab, a small Swedish luxury car brand was – as far as the media and many industry analysts were concerned – about to take its rightful place as a historical footnote at the end of 2009. At the eleventh hour Saab’s owners (General Motors since the year 2000) found a buyer just as they were winding the operation down. Since then the brand has gradually begun to right itself with a fresh take on its niche brand strategy.

Saab’s brand heritage


Brand equity is an intangible asset, it only exists in the minds of the consumers within a defined market, but it has a very concrete impact on behavior and thus the bottom line. Saab’s particular form of brand equity used to be expressed in a loyal, almost fanatical customer base – conquest sales were not the way the brand survived. However as GM made its presence felt in the 2000s, Saabs repeat-purchase rates dropped. Repeat-purchase rates were: 35.5%, 33.4% and 9% in 2004, 2006 and 2009 respectively (source: JD Powers).

Even though repeat-purchase loyalty flagged, the emotional attachment continued – even going as far as protests on the streets. As a near bankrupt General Motors started to close or sell many of its brands in 2009 (Hummer, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn) Saab loyalists were the only ones prepared to take to the streets in a global outcry against GM’s decision. Saab employees also displayed unusual loyalty, voluntarily working on projects even when there was no budget available.

Saab’s attraction seems to be due to two major factors: contrarian engineering and relatively low sales figures. Even though Saab’s products have always fallen into segments typically populated by ‘mass produced’ cars – it was and still is a rare sight on the roads. The fact that it is only popular amongst a small niche of buyers, seems to be itself attractive to the niche (5). The community is small enough in fact, that it has developed its own rituals, such as signaling other Saab drivers on the road8 or helping stranded Saab drivers – even though they were total strangers.

So paradoxically, success for Saab has meant not being too successful. Saab has never sold more than 140,000 units in any one year of its entire existence (2).

What needs to be done to strengthen the Saab brand within its niche?

According to imminent brand theorist David Aaker (3), there are four major processes that build a strong brand:

1.) Ensuring the organisational structure and processes support the brand

A major failing of GM’s management was not ensuring someone senior enough cared about the brand. GM tended to leave Saab to lower level managers who never stayed long enough to execute a coherent strategy. The message conveyed to customers was one of “We don’t really care, Saab customers make-up a small component of our total sales”.

Under new ownership circumstances couldn’t be more different. The new CEO, Dutchman Victor Muller, has returned the ‘small’ feel to the brand with his refreshing management style. The antithesis of a GM CEO: 1.) He himself pilots Saab cars in races, 2.) spontaneously shows new designs for Saab cars to the media on his iPod and 3.) says what he thinks without much regard for tact or PR spin. The absence of formality and procedure reinforces the image of a small company which is open to dialogue with its customer base.

2.) Ensure that the brand architecture is correct

In the past this was poorly managed – evidence of this being the media’s constant confusion between Saab and other GM brand’s underpinnings. Many journalists referred to Saabs (incorrectly) as Opels/Vauxhalls with Saab bodies. GM did little to counter this blurring, resulting in a poorly defined brand architecture.

Saab risks a similar blurring in its relationship with BMW.


BMW in contrast to Saab is an ingenious ‘victim’ of its own success – a luxury brand which is not exclusive. BMW has managed to get away with this on the strength of its engineering, emphasis on quality (6) and sound pricing strategy. Added to this is brand purity – BMW is still BMW from the ground up, it is not just a sub-brand in a corporate empire.

So, fortunately, BMW has better brand cache than GM but Saab still needs to ensure that a Saab both looks and behaves like a Saab. Saab needs to benefit from BMW equity without diluting its own equity.

Saab will have to invest its limited engineering and promotional budget into actively differentiating Saab from BMW and its other competitors – in a functional/meaningful way in order to avoid being overshadowed by the larger brand.


3.) Defining the brand positioning crisply

Saabs strengths were and still are poorly communicated. The result is consumers often don’t include these strengths in their mental positioning of Saab.

Some examples:

Safety leadership was claimed by Volvo, in-spite of the fact that Saab did just as well in the laboratories (NCAP) and better than Volvo in real life (IIHS injury data). A lack of advertising spend left this strength largely unknown, meaning it was wasted as a brand differentiator and not translated in equity.
Unusual performance quirks, such as exceptional mid-range acceleration, making over-taking and moving into traffic a breeze. This positioning point is under threat as a unique differentiator as competitors have introduced turbo charging at the entry level.
Quality, quality, quality. Saab emphasized quality under the skin and spent large amounts of cash engineering the engines, suspensions and crash structures. However they under-spent on interiors, leaving them lagging in the perceived quality stakes. Going forward they will need to keep the accountants out of the passenger cabin.
Styling differentiators, such as the characteristic Saab dashboards, ignition location and the clamshell bonnet were watered down by GM. These aspects will need to be emphasized again, but without falling into the trap Jaguar fell into by allowing too many retro styling cues.
Perceived value for money. Saab claims it is positioning on price at Audi levels – slightly below BMW and Mercedes. However Saab made the mistake of leaving out its entry level variants when launching the new 95 model this year. This led to some industry commentators claiming the Saab was over-priced.10 Of course under-pricing would be just as bad.
In this area, Saab could do no better than to learn from BMW South Africa, who for many years have managed to offer discounted pricing without being perceived to be doing so – the discount being disguised in the form of reduced interest rates.

4.) Brand building programmes

Firstly, Saab needs to ensure it has the right target positioning – i.e. where it wants to be in the minds of potential customers. Doing this means marketing research: Quantifying the value of alternative brand positionings and ensuring the right segments find the positioning appealing. While most automotive companies face the temptation of appealing to the more valuable segments in terms of volume and spend, Saab’s financial strategy allows it to avoid this. By pandering to the tastes of a core segment of loyal buyers, Saab will ensure it has a steady stream of repeat purchases in future.

Secondly, ensuring the actual brand positioning matches the ideal brand positioning means spending the required advertising and PR money, and aligning other functional areas in the organisation in support of this positioning. Everyone, from the design department to the dealer network need to reinforce the positioning of the brand.

Conducting ongoing brand tracking surveys will help managers gauge whether actions taken result in the actual positioning coming closer to the ideal positioning. Raw brand awareness also needs to be tracked.

How is the ‘new’ Saab performing so far?

In the past, Saab was underfunded in certain key areas in the name of cost cutting, only for this to backfire by reducing brand equity and thus sales. There are two main areas which Saab needs to resolve in its brand building efforts: Interior quality perceptions and communication.

Interior quality perceptions

Time and again reviewers pointed out flaws with the interiors (and continue to do so with the new 95) while GM did little in response.
The survey results provide an indication that Saab’s interior problems are having a very real impact on Saab’s brand equity. It is not just an issue noted by journalists, it is also a perception shared by the broader public. Of all the areas measured, this is the area where Saab lags Audi most.



Note: Generally brand surveys are restricted to a particular group, such as a specific segment of automotive customers. It was decided that since Saab’s target segments are in a state of flux at present, a broader view of the entire nation would be more useful (16 years and older).

Marketing communication issues

As can be seen on the chart, the general public also seem unaware of Saab’s leading position on key differentiators such as safety. Ultimately this can be blamed on inadequate communication, not only with the public but also with the motoring media.

What can be done to build Saab’s brand equity?
Building brand equity costs money. Balancing financial viability with engineering and brand-building investment, will continue to be a challenge. While Saab, in past decades, developed most of its components from scratch, the R&D investments required to produce the vastly more complex cars of today makes this impossible given Saab’s sales volumes. To solve this dilemma, Saab is continuing the strategy of using off-shelf components (hence the BMW engine partnership) to reduce overheads. In fact, Saab has been structured by its new owners to have such low overheads that it is likely to break even at a relatively-small volume of 75,000 units (4).

For this partnership to work though, Saab will have to avoid making the same mistakes again. Off-the shelf components must be invisible or modified to take on Saabish qualities. Most essentially Saab needs to ensure that perceived quality is balanced against price perceptions.

So far, if the new 95 is anything to go by, Saab still seems only vaguely aware of how critical quality perceptions are. Even though Saab’s Swedish factory was having problems obtaining a critical dashboard panel from a supplier, Saab still launched the new 95 – resorting to a stop gap grey panel – which drew intense criticism from motoring journalists which will no doubt contribute to perceptions of poor quality amongst consumers. Price perceptions were also not managed as the more expensive models came on the market first, leading at least one analyst to conclude that the 95 was hopelessly over-priced (10). Given that you most of the press attention at launch – this was a significant blunder.

Action steps:
1. Guard the brand architecture and prevent confusion with larger partners such as BMW. Saab’s own internal engineering independence needs to be maintained – especially in areas that really differentiate the brand. These points of differentiation need to not only make Saab ‘different’ in terms of performance and interior characteristics, but also need to have practical value. Saab’s new diesel – which achieves industry leading CO2 levels – is a case in point. Saab need to ensure the current advertising blitz claims this as its own engineering achievement (from what I have seen so far, this has not been done in a clear enough manner).

2. Ensure Saab’s have a well-defined brand positioning ideal on paper – and that the gap between the ideal and what consumers actually perceive is monitored rigorously (monthly brand-tracking surveys). Managing quality and value-for-money perceptions on the basis of this tracking data is key to ensuring that the brand positioning actually improves.

3. Only spend money on brand building campaigns that actually communicate the brand’s unique positioning – scrap the rest. Saab can’t afford bland ‘wallpaper’ advertising just for the sake of building awareness. Any product advantage is worthless unless potential customers know about it. As can be seen below, Saab’s advertising has been generating some awareness in the UK of late, however it is far outpaced by its main rivals Audi and Volvo.



4. Enable Saab’s existing brand advocates – give them tools to promote the brand further (e.g. brochures or test drive invites). Saab has an unusually loyal core of brand advocates who promote the brand through word of mouth and through numerous blogs (numerous given Saab’s small market share) (7).

5. Saab should utilise any opportunities that allow other strong brands to ‘rub-off’ on Saab’s brand equity. The current BMW arrangement is an obvious example. Another alternative that does not yet seem to be under consideration is involving Saab’s automotive’s original owner – Saab aerospace – in the design of one or two components. Re-establishing the connection with the fighter jet maker can’t be a bad idea given Saab’s aeronautical heritage and need to communicate engineering prowess.

6. Test drives. The survey results also revealed some key issues amongst those who test drive new cars. Saab should aim to counter these issues, as test driving is critical to improving perceptions. The three main issues are: 1.) The short duration of test drives, 2.) having to book in advance and 3.) reluctance on the part of dealers to offer test drives.

Saab needs to make sure cars are available at a moments notice. Secondly Saab needs to monitor sales people to ensure they are actually offering test drives (mystery shopping is an ideal way to do this).
Saab should not only target today’s most lucrative segments when offering test drives. Targeting the youth, especially those who are likely to buy a Saab in later years (e.g. university students studying courses with high income potential and young professionals) may make sense. Given their probable comparison set, these groups are more likely to find that the cars exceed their expectations and are so more likely to provide positive word of mouth now and hopefully future sales. They may also be an important influence on the decisions made by parents and significant others.

References and notes
1. “Spyker Cars N.V.: SPYKER CARS N.V. (including SAAB AUTOMOBILE A.B.) REPORTS ITS SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT 2010”. Web: www.reuters.com.
2. “Saab Automobile’s Global Sales Volume 1947-2007” (2008). Web: www.saabhistory.com.
3. Aaker, DA and Joachimsthaler E (2000) “Brand Leadership”, The Free Press: New York.
4. Stevenson, R (2010), “Spyker aims to boost Saab production 18%”, Business Day, 29 September.
5. Anecdotal evidence from blog entries.
6. Bold, B. (2004). “News Analysis: Is BMW risking brand suicide?”, Marketing, April 21.
7. An interesting example of this phenomenon is a blog run by a chartered accountant, Steven Wade who seems to spend most of his spare time promoting the brand. Web: www.saabsunited.com.
8. O. Aykac, D. Selcen, (2007). “Identification in Hyper-Loyalty Brand Communities” (2007). MAKING OF CULT BRANDS, Swapna Gopalan, ed., ICFAI Press: Andhra Pradesh, India, 2007. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1363795
9. Hjalte, S. & Larsson, S. (2004) “Managing customer loyalty in the automotive industry: Two case studies”, Masters thesis. Lulea University of Technology. Web: http://epubl.luth.se/1404-5508/2004/074/LTU-SHU-EX-04074-SE.pdf
10. Kinnander, O. (2010).“Volvo, Saab Need More Than `Me-Too’ Luxury to Beat BMW”. Bloomber, 23 September. Web: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-22/volvo-saab-need-more-than-me-too-german-luxury-to-beat-bmw.html




]]> Wed, 02 Nov 2011 12:55:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?building-the-saab-brand--bmw-and-other-factors https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000000C <![CDATA[Augmented-reality print ads: Are they worth it?]]> imblog In the May 2011 issue of Car Magazine a new type of advertising was introduced, augmented-reality print advertising. The advert in question was a double-page spread, advertising a Mercedes CL63 AMG. It combined print with online content in a novel way. A picture of the interior of the car was shown with instructions on how to access the online content via smart phone, printed in the rear-view mirror. The reader was asked to browse to the site and to place their smart-phone over the rear-view mirror so that a simulated view of what to expect in the rear-view mirror could be shown (i.e. an aggressive motorist tailgating and flashing lights – code for the Mercedes driver to move out the way – instead the Mercedes driver accelerates away).

Acentric conducted an ad test with 79 members of the Acentric online panel, in order to examine the adverts performance.

The original advert



How effective was the ‘augmented-reality’ aspect?

Ability to get attention
The advert scored above average in terms of its attention score. Attention scores relate to in-market recall of an advert and are therefore a key performance metric. Overall the advert got an above average score of 66.28, with males paying more attention than females.


Did they bother to access the online content?
One of the nagging doubts about the likely effectiveness of augmented-reality print adverts is the additional effort required to fully appreciate such advertising. To test the performance of this aspect, we exposed respondents to the advert, and made sure they had the details necessary to access the video. At the same time we asked various questions that would focus their attention on the advert. Survey respondents were then asked if they had watched the video (they were asked this on the next page, at a point where they could not go back again to retrieve the video access details).

In order to improve the accuracy of the result the question was disguised as a recall question about a detail in the video, with “I didn’t play the video” being just one of the response options. Under these fairly ideal conditions, approximately 63% appear to have played the video. A fairly impressive statistic, however it should be born in mind that in the real world this is likely to be lower as not everyone will have access to a smart phone, and there is no doubt that the novelty value of such adverts will begin to wear off.
That said, augmented-reality print ads could be a useful way of providing additional information to those consumers who are more involved in the category and therefore more likely to go to the effort of accessing online content. An indication of this, is the fact that 72% of males accessed the video, versus 54% for females.

An additional advantage, is the opportunity to combine an emotional appeal with a fact based/rational appeal in one advert. This should broaden the relevance of augmented-reality print adverts, meaning they are likely to provide better return on investment.


Advert performance

Brand linkage

Brand linkage was strong, 86% recalling that it was a Mercedes advert.

What message was communicated?
Overall: Power, speed, comfort and mileage were the predominant themes. When a comparison is made between those who accessed the online content with those who did not, it becomes clear that augmented-reality print ads have great potential as enablers for combined appeals – different appeals can be targeted at different audiences.

Additional elements
Two different element variations were incorporated in a quasi-experimental design to estimate element importance.
Versions with colour rather than black and white were proven more effective, while price information would have a more positive impact on attention scores, than excluding price information. The model suggested that adding price details would have mitigated the impact of black and white, so providing a way to reduce advertising costs.

Suggestions for improvement

The most popular suggestions for improving the advert were: Improving picture quality, showing
more of the car and including attractive girls/women as part of the advert.

Summary

In summary, it appears augmented-reality print ads have good potential, and with careful design and
execution should improve the performance of print ads. It is expected that the primary mechanism
would be via broader appeal, as more than one appeal can be combined within one advert. In
particular, the traditional print ad can be used for emotional appeals while the augmented aspect
can be used to target more involved consumers – with either emotional or rational feature oriented
appeals. Of course, the targeting mechanism depends on the ability of the advert to get attention
and depends on an inherent division in the target audience in terms of category involvement.
Therefore, it stands to reason that such adverts are more difficult to design and execute and so
would benefit from the additional guidance provided by advert pre-testing surveys.



]]> Thu, 15 Sep 2011 18:42:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?augmented-reality-print-ads--are-they-worth-it- https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000000F <![CDATA[Acentric survey reveals traffic congestion’s effect on SA]]> imblog A survey conducted on behalf of Tom Tom, by Acentric Marketing Research reveals a disturbing traffic situation on SA’s roads. The survey was conducted online amongst 962 South African road users, and completed in January 2011. In total, at least 3.8 million people are estimated to drive vehicles to work on an almost daily basis in South Africa. Of these roughly 2.2 million sit in a traffic jam on any given day. An astounding 1.4 million are late for work every day, and another 342,000 are estimated to have meetings cancelled on any given work day as a result of traffic.


The economic impact


South African’s are being exposed to ever more gruelling travel times. Nationally, a quarter of drivers (26%) reported spending more than 45 minutes travelling to work, while in Gauteng this increased to one third (35%) of drivers. Over half indicated that they were stuck in a traffic jam on their most recent trip to work, while a third (35.9%) eventually arrived late. Overall, 40% reported being at least 30 minutes late or more (up to 3 hours in a few cases).

The total economic impact is devastating. Simply by being late for work, it is estimated that – every month – approximately R1.1 billion is lost to companies in terms of salary costs. This excludes other costs resulting from meeting cancellations. Over a third of those surveyed were late for work on their most recent trip, while approximately 8% claimed that a meeting had been delayed as a result of traffic on their most recent work related trip.

The impact on health


Besides the obvious impact of frequent traffic-jam exposure on the stress experienced in traffic, the survey also showed that the impact of traffic jams reached beyond the immediate experience. The survey results indicated that those exposed to traffic jam related stress on a daily basis, had a 64% higher level of perceived general-life stress (versus those who never experienced traffic jam related stress on the way to work). Since academic research has shown a clear link between perceptions of general-life stress (using a similar set of questions) and susceptibility to infection (Cohen, 1993) traffic jams are clearly a cause for concern.

Besides the resultant stress and potential links with disease, traffic jams create a range of negative emotional reactions during the event. When drivers were asked to describe their emotional reaction to traffic jams, most mentioned very extreme emotion – “hatred” being the most commonly mentioned response.

The impact on children and parents


Besides the economic and emotional toll, the impact on children in our society is also deeply troubling. Extrapolating from the survey data, it is estimated that 435,000 children are left stranded -on any given work day – as parents are late picking them up from work from school/crèche. Statistical analysis revealed that being late fetching a child from school/crèche, was the most likely to induce stress during a trip (of any event measured, even violent events such as witnessing the aftermath of traffic accidents).

Many schools/crèches also impose fines on parents when they are late, adding to the economic burden.

Perceptions of environmental impact


The impact on the environment is also devastating. In total 96% of drivers believe that reducing traffic by just 15% would lower air pollution levels.

Important notes:

1.) The Tom Tom traffic survey results reported by the Beeld newspaper were incorrect. In particular references to Johannesburg are misleading, as the survey report did not provide statistics at this level of detail (only national and Gauteng statistics were provided). In addition, certain of the statistics (such as the claim that “78% of the 3.8 million drivers on Johannesburg roads are stuck in a severe traffic jam on a daily basis”) have no basis in fact.

2.) Rounding applied to figures displayed. 3.) According to AMPS 2010B, there are 3,808,644 owners/users of vehicles who work full or part-time. 3.) No responsibility will be accepted for consequential losses if reliance is made on these figures. Only for illustration . Limitations possibly include: Sampling error (all samples have a certain amount of error – see the reported margin of error) and the assumption that the % of respondents late on any one work day can be used to estimate the probability of any one individual being late.
]]> Sat, 01 Jan 2011 13:12:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?acentric-survey-reveals-traffic-congestion-s-effect-on-sa https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000000E <![CDATA[Survey: SA’s international image nose-dives before World Cup]]> imblog

A new study shows that South Africa’s international reputation declined significantly between December 2009 and June 2010. Perceptions of SA immigrants living in the UK and the SA government took a knock along with intentions to visit the country in future. Confidence in the ability of the country to host the World Cup is also low.

Only 14% of the public in the United Kingdom agree that South Africa has a good-overall reputation, relative to other developing countries. This is according to a survey by South African marketing research consultancy Acentric, conducted between the 2nd and 7th of June 2010. This represents a statistically significant drop from the 21% agreement recorded in December 2009.



Specific dimensions which recorded a decline include perceptions of the SA government, perceptions of SA immigrants (living in the UK), tourism intentions and investment intentions.

“While perceptions of SA governance and investment intentions dropped in June 2010, these changes did not reflect a statistically significant drop on any of the underlying measures. However the drop in the perceived contribution of SA immigrants to the UK, along with intentions to visit SA as a tourist did reflect a significant drop on some of the underlying measures.” says Craig Kolb, Managing Member and Owner of Acentric Marketing Research.

“Given that the UK is still the leading foreign investor in South Africa and also the leading source of overseas tourists, it is of some concern to see SA’s reputation decay even further in that country. Hopefully the situation will improve after the World Cup. Approximately 31% of survey respondents stated an intention to watch the World Cup on TV which offers South Africa an opportunity for increased exposure. ” says Kolb.

Perceptions of SA’s ability to provide good living standards relative to the EU are unchanged, while perceptions of security improved (but not significantly) over December 2009.

Lastly, perceptions regarding South Africa’s ability to host the World Cup are still poor.

“Overall, 25% agree that South Africa will do a good job hosting the Cup, which is slightly lower than in December but not significantly so. Hopefully this perception will change once the Cup is under way.” says Kolb.

Technical note: The June overall-reputation score has a margin of error of 4.3% (at a 95% confidence level). In total 256 individuals were surveyed within England, Scotland, Ireland and Wales in December 2009 and 250 in June 2010. The results are representative of the UK population.
Affiliates

]]> Mon, 07 Jun 2010 12:46:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?survey--sa-s-international-image-nose-dives-before-world-cup https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000000B <![CDATA[New product survey: Will Google’s advertising investment in its Chrome browser payoff?]]> imblog
In September 2008, Google Chrome was released to the world as an alternative to Microsoft’s market leading Internet Explorer. Americans have since been subjected to an unprecedented barrage of advertising which fortunately or unfortunately we seem to have escaped in South Africa. Almost 18% of American browser users had seen a Google Chrome advert in the 4 week period prior to the survey, from the 9th of February to the 8th of March 2010. This has successfully driven up consumer awareness levels. This begs the question though “Is Google’s advertising investment enough to make the new browser a success?”. Will Chrome replace Internet Explorer as the dominant browser or at least replace Firefox as the main alternative to Internet Explorer?


A concept test survey in a key market


To answer this question and other marketing questions, an online concept test survey was conducted by AcentricTM within the USA market in March 2010. How Chrome performs in this key market is likely to determine the outcome of the browser battle here in South Africa.

While the survey revealed Chrome has achieved high levels of prompted awareness (48%), it still only controls a small fraction of the market. As of the 9th of March 2010, Chrome controlled a miniscule 4%* of the home consumer market in the USA.

Projections using the Acentric Express Test model - for the 2010 version of the Chrome browser - revealed an eventual market share peak of at most 18.82% (taking into account sampling error), for the current incarnation of Google Chrome {subsequent to writing this article data became available from “The Next Web” showing that Google Chrome had indeed reached approximately 18% and begun to lose share from August 2012}. In effect this means that no matter how much Google invests in Advertising, the current browser-concept is not likely to exceed 18.82%. This means Google will need to make improvements if it aims to even claim the number two position ahead of Firefox.

Looking at it from the consumer’s point of view


Google Chrome’s main strength is its speed according to the consumer’s surveyed. This is closely followed by its Zen like simplicity.
However, being slightly faster and simpler than other browsers does not appear to be enough of a value proposition. Most consumers did not feel the Google Chrome’s browser was “unique” enough and an even greater number did not feel it was “important” to them. In short the message from consumers was that Chrome is not strongly differentiated enough to make a real difference in their lives.
Internet Explorer’s dominance is in part due to it being a standard installation when purchasing a PC or laptop, and it was clear from the survey a large numbers of users also happen to prefer it. In particular older users aged 35 and above seem to prefer it. Younger users had a clear preference for Firefox and a greater number also preferred Chrome when compared to the older group.

Conclusion


In summary Google’s investment in browser advertising is unprecedented, but advertising on its own is clearly not enough. Google will have to improve its current product offering to gain traction.

Firefox has already successfully positioned its browser as the “Microsoft alternative” designed to appeal to those who simply want to spite Microsoft or perhaps simply want more features. Google needs to take aim at Firefox users, not just Microsoft users many of whom are quite comfortable with what is in practice a default setting on their computers. This means taking aim at younger consumers (below 35 years) who have a clear preference for alternative brands and the battle will be waged against Firefox not Internet Explorer within this group.


Notes:
*A 3.84% sampling margin of error applies to this statistic (95% confidence, n=100).

]]> Mon, 12 Apr 2010 11:14:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?new-product-survey--will-google-s-advertising-investment-in-its-chrome-browser-payoff- https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/00000000A <![CDATA[Survey shows Zuma’s UK visit had negatives and positives]]> imblog Survey date: March 2010

According to a survey commissioned by South African marketing research firm Acentric, 15% of the UK became aware for the first time this week, that Jacob Zuma was president of South Africa. While his visit created a substantial increase in awareness of various issues, the survey also highlighted the fact that South Africa’s overall reputation had not been compromised by the visit and that the UK public felt the media coverage had not been fair to the president.

“South Africa’s overall reputation score was not significantly different (from a statistical standpoint) when compared to a baseline survey conducted in the UK by Acentric in December 2009. So I don’t believe his state visit had a particularly negative impact on South Africa’s overall reputation as a country. However, it should be mentioned that the score was already low in December to start with.” says Craig Kolb, MD of Acentric Marketing Research Consulting.

While the UK press focused on Zuma’s personal life, especially the issues of promiscuity and polygamy, the majority of the UK public felt this was unfair. Only 9% of the UK public felt the UK media had been been fair to Zuma overall. Only 13% felt it was fair that the media focused on his polygamous practices and even fewer felt it was fair that the UK media focused on the promiscuity issue.

“While the UK public public clearly felt the focus on his private life was not justified, the opposite applies to the Zimbabwe issue. Only 2% believed it was right for Jacob Zuma to call for the lifting of sanctions against Zimbabwe.” says Kolb.

Approximately 15% of the UK public only became aware that Jacob Zuma had multiple wives this past week. Besides the increase in awareness generated around his private life, his visit also increased awareness of the political issues – 11% becoming aware of divisions in the ruling party only this past week and 9% his call for the lifting of sanctions against Zimbabwe.

“Another interesting factor was the word of mouth inspired by his visit. It doesn’t seem to have been an event people just ‘took note of’, there seems to have been quite a bit of discussion going on. Approximately 11% of the respondents noticed other people discussing Jacob Zuma that week.” says Kolb.

In total 128 individuals were surveyed within the United Kingdom. The results had a 7.6% margin of error (at a 95% confidence level) and are weighted to ensure demographic representation of the UK population.
Affiliates

Copyright © 2010-2020. All Rights Reserved.


]]> Tue, 30 Mar 2010 11:10:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?survey-shows-zuma-s-uk-visit-had-negatives-and-positives https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000009 <![CDATA[Acentric Country Image Study – U.K. perceptions of S.A.]]> imblog Survey date: December 2009

According to a study conducted by South African marketing research firm Acentric – completed in December 2009 – only 21% of the public in the United Kingdom feel South Africa has a good reputation overall, relative to other developing countries.

The image of the SA government is particularly poor, with 10% feeling SA had a strong democracy relative to other developing countries and only 11% believing that the SA government was trustworthy.

The poor perceptions of SA’s governance, could plausibly explain the low interest in investing in SA securities. In total 10% felt they were likely to invest in an SA company’s shares (assuming returns better than what they could get from a UK company), while only 4% would invest in SA government bonds – even if they offered better returns than those offered by the UK government.

South African immigrants fared no better, with only 9% feeling that SA immigrants made a positive contribution to the UK overall. In particular, SA immigrants influence on the economy was viewed in a negative light.

In terms of SA’s living standards, opinions differed depending on which aspect was the focus. In terms of crime, only 3% felt SA had low crime levels relative to other developing nations. On the positive side, 27% felt that SA had living standards in certain regions which could equal countries in the European Union, 29% felt that SA would do a good job hosting the Soccer World Cup and 29% agreed strongly that they would go on holiday to SA if the holiday package ‘was good value for money’. Interestingly, 7% of those surveyed reported having close colleagues, friends or family living in SA.

In total 256 individuals were surveyed within England, Scotland, Ireland and Wales. The results have a margin of error of 4.6% (at a 95% confidence level) and are weighted to ensure demographic representation of the UK population.
Affiliates

Copyright © 2010-2020. All Rights Reserved.


]]> Mon, 01 Mar 2010 11:03:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?acentric-country-image-study---u-k--perceptions-of-s-a- https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000008 <![CDATA[New product survey: Why “The Twilight Saga: New Moon” movie was so successful and why “Avatar” will be even more so]]> imblog
Survey date: December 2009

The launch of the Twilight Saga: New Moon movie was surrounded by much hype and anticipation. Acentric Marketing Research South Africa, evaluated reaction in the UK market with a snap survey* conducted shortly after release, near the end of November 2009. The aim of the survey was to establish interest in the “New Moon” movie concept versus a benchmark movie concept “Law Abiding Citizen”.

Both movie concepts received similar ratings, New Moon receiving marginally better ratings.

This begs the question then: Why has New Moon earned nearly five times as much at the box office so far (approximately £26 million versus £6 million according to the UK Film Council, as of 21 December 2009)?

Firstly an examination of online content shows that New Moon benefitted from far more extensive word of mouth and media coverage. Secondly New Moon was accepted more widely within the UK cinema network.

A follow-up survey conducted at the end of December 2009 verified the effect of this. Awareness levels of the two movies were quite different – awareness being strongly in favour of New Moon, as was movie theatre acceptance.

In conclusion it seems plausible that much of New Moon’s success can be attributed to: Sheer marketing power, public relations and word of mouth (no doubt enhanced by its cult status). The movie concept itself didn’t have any special appeal.

In the second survey, we also assessed some other movies which have recently been released. Of these movies, Avatar seems poised to better New Moon having already achieved far higher levels of awareness and purchases early in its life cycle (it had just been released). It looks set to be a blockbuster…

Note: Two surveys of 100 respondents each were conducted amongst members of the UK public. The results were weighted to ensure representation of the UK (those aged 16 and above).






]]> Mon, 01 Mar 2010 10:58:00 GMT https://acentric.co.za/blog/?new-product-survey--why--the-twilight-saga--new-moon--movie-was-so-successful-and-why--avatar--will-be-even-more-so https://acentric.co.za/blog/rss/000000006